European astronaut radiation related cancer risk assessment using dosimetric calculations of organ dose equivalents

An illustrative sample mission of a Mars swing-by mission lasting one calendar year was chosen to highlight the application of European risk assessment software to cancer (all solid cancer plus leukaemia) risks from radiation exposures in space quantified with organ dose equivalent rates from model calculations based on the quantity Radiation Attributed Decrease of Survival (RADS). The relevant dose equivalent to the colon for radiation exposures from this Mars swing-by mission were found to vary between 198 and 482 mSv. These doses depend on sex and the two other factors investigated here of: solar activity phase (maximum or minimum); and the choice of space radiation quality factor used in the calculations of dose equivalent. Such doses received at typical astronaut ages around 40 years old will result in: the probability of surviving until retirement age (65 years) being reduced by a range from 0.38% (95%CI: 0.29; 0.49) to 1.29% (95%CI: 1.06; 1.56); and the probability of surviving cancer free until retirement age being reduced by a range from 0.78% (95%CI: 0.59; 0.99) to 2.63% (95%CI: 2.16; 3.18). As expected from the features of the models applied to quantify the general dosimetric and radiation epidemiology parameters, the cancer incidence risks in terms of surviving cancer free, are higher than the cancer mortality risks in terms of surviving, the risks for females are higher than for males, and the risks at solar minimum are higher than at solar maximum.