考虑预期致命事故密度的道路安全评价

IF 0.6 4区工程技术 Q4 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Baltic Journal of Road and Bridge Engineering Pub Date : 2020-06-25 DOI:10.7250/bjrbe.2020-15.471

Vilma Jasiūnienė, R. Vaiškūnaitė

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引用次数: 1

摘要

贯穿整个网络的全路网道路安全评估是欧洲议会和理事会2019年10月23日Аmending关于道路基础设施安全管理的第2008/96/EC号指令2019/1936/EC规定的四项道路基础设施安全管理程序之一，也是确定道路安全投资方向的方法之一。到目前为止，该程序的实施受到了轻微的管制，并使用各种道路安全指标进行了调整。本文描述了道路事故数据的评估，这是进行全网络道路安全评估的标准之一。考虑到全网道路安全评价是一项主动的道路安全活动，本文提出考虑预期致命事故密度进行道路安全评价。这种评估可以评估事故的严重程度，并利用预测的道路事故数据来计算引入的道路事故率，从而有助于预防事故。本文描述了预测道路事故的经验贝叶斯方法，以及应用道路安全指标之一——预期致命事故密度——来确定整个道路网络的五种道路安全类别。本文利用2014-2018年期间的道路事故和交通数据展示了提交给立陶宛公路的建议的应用情况。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Road Safety Assessment Considering the Expected Fatal Accident Density

Network-wide road safety assessment throughout the whole network is one of the four road infrastructure safety management procedures regulated by Directive 2019/1936/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2019 Аmending Directive 2008/96/EC on Road Infrastructure Safety Management and one of the methods for determining the direction of investment in road safety. So far, the implementation of the procedure has been lightly regulated and adapted using various road safety indicators. The paper describes the evaluation of road accident data that is one of the criteria for conducting a network-wide road safety assessment. Taking into consideration that networkwide road safety assessment is a proactive road safety activity, the paper proposes to conduct road safety assessment considering the expected fatal accident density. Such assessment makes it possible to assess the severity of accidents, and the use of the predicted road accident data on calculating the introduced road accident rate contributing to the prevention of accidents. The paper describes both the empirical Bayes method for predicting road accidents and the application of one of the road safety indicators – the expected fatal accident density – to determine five road safety categories across the road network. The paper demonstrates the application of the proposals submitted to Lithuanian highways using road accident and traffic data for the period 2014–2018.

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来源期刊

Baltic Journal of Road and Bridge Engineering 工程技术-工程：土木

CiteScore

2.10

自引率

9.10%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： THE JOURNAL IS DESIGNED FOR PUBLISHING PAPERS CONCERNING THE FOLLOWING AREAS OF RESEARCH: road and bridge research and design, road construction materials and technologies, bridge construction materials and technologies, road and bridge repair, road and bridge maintenance, traffic safety, road and bridge information technologies, environmental issues, road climatology, low-volume roads, normative documentation, quality management and assurance, road infrastructure and its assessment, asset management, road and bridge construction financing, specialist pre-service and in-service training;