人类发展方面的国家和能源安全

Miroslav Bjegović, Mirjana Radovanovic, Goran Ž. Župac
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引用次数: 0

摘要

管理能源是全球未来安全的主要挑战之一。能源安全是国家安全体系的重要组成部分,与经济、社会和地缘政治的整体发展有着密切的因果关系。尽管具有很高的意义,但是在定义用于控制该领域治理的方法方面存在主要的挑战。此外,为了某些地缘政治目的,控制测量的结果可能被(遗漏)解释和/或故意制造出来。本文将介绍的方法分析是由著名的世界能源理事会开发的能源三难困境指数。本文的主要目的是评估该指数的可靠性,这是通过在33个国家的样本上测试其方法概念本身来完成的。分析是通过审查现有报告、一般描述性统计和数据处理来进行的。将Spearman的秩序相关检验应用于四个主要变量:能源三难指数的三个变量成分和人类发展指数作为控制变量。本研究的结果指出了指数本身的重大缺陷,因此建议对所有使用能源三难困境指数进行和/或支持的监管、战略和评估都要谨慎对待。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
National and energy security in terms of human development
Governing energy is one of the main challenges for the secure global future. Energy security is integral part of national security system, characterized by strong causal relationship with economic, social and geopolitical movements as a whole. Regardless of the high significance, there are major challenges in defining methodologies for control of the governance in this area. In addition, results of control measurements could be (miss)interpreted and/or intentionally created for certain geopolitical purposes. Methodology analysis, which will be presented in this paper, is Energy Trilemma Index, developed by distinguished World Energy Council. Main objective of this paper is assessment of reliability of this Index, which is done by testing of its methodological concept itself on the sample of 33 countries. Analysis is conducted by review of available reports, general descriptive statistics and data processing. Spearman's rank-order correlation test has been applied to four main variables: three variables constituents of Energy Trilemma Index and Human Development Index as control variable. Results of this research point to the significant shortcomings of Index itself, because of which it is recommended for all the regulation, strategies and assessments done and/or supported by use of Energy Trilemma Index to be taken with certain level of caution.
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