波德戈里察市(黑山)气温趋势分析

Nikola R. Bačević, A. Valjarević, Dušan Kićović, Nikola Milentijević, M. Ivanović, Meliha Mujević
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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文介绍了黑山共和国波德戈里察气象站的年平均气温(YT)、平均最高气温(YTx)和平均最低气温(YTn) 3类参数的趋势分析结果。本文的目的是根据分析的气温趋势得出的结果,提出可能的气候变化。该方法基于:a)线性趋势方程,b)趋势幅度和c) Mann-Kendall趋势检验的应用。波德戈里察著名气象站1947年至2018年的数据被用来估计这一趋势。所得结果表明,所有分析的时间序列都有统计学上显著的正趋势。分析趋势检验假设,得出的结论是,在所有三种情况下,Ha假设占上风。波德戈里察年平均气温上升1.4°C,平均最高气温上升2.5°C,平均最低气温上升0.6°C。根据分析的趋势,气温的上升在黑山共和国首都占主导地位。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Analysis of air temperature trends: City of Podgorica (Montenegro)
This paper presents the results of the analyzed trends for three categories of parameters: average annual air temperature (YT), average maximum air temperature (YTx) and average minimum air temperature (YTn) for the Podgorica Meteorological Station in the Republic of Montenegro. The aim of this paper is to present possible climate changes based on the results obtained from the analyzed air temperature trends. The methodology is based on the application of: a) linear trend equations, b) trend magnitudes and c) Mann-Kendall trend test. The data from the respectable meteorological station in Podgorica for the period from 1947 to 2018 were used in order to estimate the trend. The obtained results indicate a statistically significant positive trend for all analyzed time series. Analyzing the trend test hypotheses, it was concluded that in all three cases the Ha hypothesis prevails. Average annual air temperature in Podgorica increased by 1.4°C, average maximum air temperature increased by 2.5°C and average minimum air temperature increased by 0.6°C. In accordance with the trends analyzed, the increase in air temperature is dominant in the capital of the Republic of Montenegro.
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