有效威慑:什么时候威慑是实现国家利益的“正确”战略?

Mihajlo Kopanja
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文的研究目标是确定威慑战略在什么情况下是国家安全的“正确之事”。在追求实现自身利益的过程中——从最小限度的生存到最大限度的霸权,国家(理论上)有多种可能的理想型战略。然而,这并不意味着所有可能的战略在实现国家利益方面都同样有效。本文试图确定,为了使威慑的实施成为最有效的战略,即国家安全的“正确之事”,应该满足哪些条件。为此,本研究分为三个部分。第一单元阐述了战略有效性的概念。在第二部分中,作者简要概述了威慑作为一种战略,提出了这一战略的关键理论概念要素。本文的第三部分提出了威慑战略有效必须满足的条件,即实现国家利益的“正确之事”。最后,在本文的最后一部分,作者着眼于塞尔维亚共和国的情况,考虑威慑是否是现代情况下的有效解决方案。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Effective deterrence: When is deterrence the "right" strategy for achieving national interests?
The research goal of this paper is to determine the circumstances in which the strategy of deterrence is the "right thingˮ for the security of the state. In the pursuit of realizing their own interests - from minimum survival to maximum hegemony, states (in theory) have a wide range of possible ideal-type strategies. However, this does not mean that all possible strategies will be equally effective for achieving national interests. This paper strives to determine which conditions should be met in order for the implementation of deterrence to be the most effective strategy, that is, the "right thingˮ for the security of the state. For this purpose, the work is organized in three parts. In the first unit, the concept of strategic effectiveness is elaborated. In the second part, the author provides a brief overview of deterrence as a strategy, presenting the key theoretical-conceptual elements of this strategy. The third part of the paper presents the conditions that must be met in order for the deterrence strategy to be effective, i.e. the "right thingˮ for realizing national interests. Finally, in the final segment of the paper, the author looks at the case of the Republic of Serbia, considering whether deterrence is an effective solution in modern circumstances.
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