GM (1, N)模型的优化及预测新方法

IF 1 4区工程技术 Q4 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS

Journal of Grey System Pub Date : 2009-06-01 DOI:10.30016/JGS.200906.0005

Yi Shao, Yong Wei

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引用次数: 0

摘要

一方面，利用一种优化的背景值重构新的GM (1, N)模型方程，发现新的GM (1, N)模型具有明显更高的模拟值和精度，特别是序列数据变化明显;另一方面，推导出适合GM (1, N)模型方程组驱动系数矩阵可逆情况的预测公式，克服了嵌套模型要求GM (1, N)模型方程组驱动系数矩阵必须为三角形阵列的缺陷。利用新的预测公式，我们可以发现新的GM (1, N)模型具有更高的预测精度。

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The Optimization of GM (1, N) Model and New Method of Forecasting

On one hand, reconstruct a new GM (1, N) model equation by using a kind of optimized background value, and we discover that the new GM (1, N) model has higher simulated value and precision obviously, especially the series of data change sharply. On the other hand, deduce a forecasting formula that can suit the situation which the drive coefficient matrix of GM (1, N) model equation group is reversible, overcome the defect of nested model which require the drive coefficient matrix of GM (1, N) model equation group should be triangular array. Using the new forecasting formula, we can discover the new GM (1, N) model has higher prognostic precision.

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来源期刊

Journal of Grey System 数学-数学跨学科应用

CiteScore

2.40

自引率

43.80%

发文量

审稿时长

1.5 months

期刊介绍： The journal is a forum of the highest professional quality for both scientists and practitioners to exchange ideas and publish new discoveries on a vast array of topics and issues in grey system. It aims to bring forth anything from either innovative to known theories or practical applications in grey system. It provides everyone opportunities to present, criticize, and discuss their findings and ideas with others. A number of areas of particular interest (but not limited) are listed as follows: Grey mathematics- Generator of Grey Sequences- Grey Incidence Analysis Models- Grey Clustering Evaluation Models- Grey Prediction Models- Grey Decision Making Models- Grey Programming Models- Grey Input and Output Models- Grey Control- Grey Game- Practical Applications.