南极海冰振荡及其对南海季风和中国夏季降水的可能影响

冰川冻土 Pub Date : 2010-06-30 DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1085.2010.00011

Lin Xue-chun

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引用次数: 3

摘要

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析1973 ~ 2002年南极海冰浓度月数据，定义了具有跷跷板型的南极海冰振荡指数。给出了冬季指数与中国夏季降水以及夏季东亚风开始日期的关系。研究结果表明，南极海冰振荡指数与南极海冰浓度相关系数超过5%置信水平的格点占南极海冰所有格点的1/3以上，即该指数可以代表1/3的海冰面积。冬季指数与中国夏季(6 ~ 8月)降水异常有显著相关。正相关区域主要集中在长江流域及其南部，负相关区域主要集中在长江流域北部。冬季指数为正(负)时，南海季风发生日期早(晚)，概率为79%(80%)。在此基础上，提出了南极冬季海冰与中国季风降水之间可能过程的概念模型。

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Antarctica Sea-Ice Oscillation and Its Possible Impact on Monsoon of South Sea and China Summer Rainfall

Antarctic sea-ice oscillation index with a seesaw pattern is defined Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis girds data of monthly Antarctica sea-ice concentration from 1973 to 2002.The Relationships between the index of winter and the summer precipitations in China as well as the onset date of the summer East Asia monsoon are presented.The study result shows that the grids of correlation coefficients passed 5 % confidence level between Antarctic sea-ice oscillation index and Antarctic sea-ice concentration are more than 1/3 of all grids of Antarctica sea-ice,that means the index can represent 1/3 sea-ice area.The winter index has a significant correlation with abnormal summer(June-August) precipitation in China.The area of positive correlation lies in the Yangtze River basin and its south,and that of negative correlation lies mainly in the north of Yangtze River basin.While the winter index is positive(negative),the onset date of South China Sea monsoon is earlier(later),with a probability of 79 %(80 %).Consequently,a conceptual model is given in term of discussing the possible process between the winter Antarctic sea ice and the monsoon precipitation in China.

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来源期刊

冰川冻土

CiteScore

2.00

自引率

0.00%

发文量

5142

期刊介绍： Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology (bimonthly) is an academic journal under the supervision of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), and co-sponsored by the Institute of Cold and Arid Environments and Engineering of CAS and the Chinese Geographical Society. Since its inception in 1979, the journal has focused on the study of ice, snow, permafrost and cryosphere, aiming to promote basic and applied research in related fields, facilitate academic exchanges at home and abroad, and serve the construction of national economy in cold regions. The content of the journal covers a wide range of disciplines, including glaciology, permafrost, hydrology, geo-ecology, etc., focusing on resources, environment, engineering and global change in the cryosphere. The readers are professionals in the fields of glaciology, permafrost, and hydrology, ecology and global change in the cold zone, teachers and students in colleges and universities, and leaders and cadres of governmental management departments. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology has a wide influence in China, and is included in many famous databases and retrieval systems at home and abroad, including Peking University's ‘Chinese Core Journals List’, China Science and Technology Core Journals (CSTPCD), and Source Journals of China Science Citation Database (CSCD), etc., and has been in several journals grading catalogues The journal has been distributed to more than 20 countries. The journal has been distributed to more than 20 countries and regions, and has been indexed by international retrieval systems such as Scopus, which has a good internationalisation prospect.