对2019冠状病毒病对欧盟和受疫情影响最严重的选定国家的经济和社会生活造成的破坏性影响进行基准评估

Metin Gürler, Özlem Özsoy
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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景:由于冠状病毒大流行,各国在经济、社会和政治上受到负面影响,生活将不会一成不变,因此国家、企业家、消费者和个人将表现出与以前不同的行为。随着疫情期间社会状况的提高,各国政府宣布了许多经济和社会一揽子计划,以防止实体部门和公民。目的:本研究旨在调查世界、欧盟和一些受疫情影响最大的国家的新冠肺炎确诊病例和死亡人数的增长率,以及这些国家的卫生指标,并分析疫情对经济、贸易和旅游的影响。方法:收集欧洲疾病预防控制中心(ECDC)全球、欧盟27国、中国、法国、德国、意大利、西班牙、土耳其、英国、美国的新冠肺炎确诊病例和死亡病例数据,采用简单移动平均法进行平滑处理,以减少波动。计算各国新冠肺炎确诊病例和死亡病例的每日和累计经验增长率,以对数尺度进行比较。研究了各国的卫生基础设施和人力资源以及COVID-19对经济和对外贸易的影响。结果:疫情严重的意大利、法国、西班牙、英国和美国几周内死亡人数超过1万人。在一些国家,卫生系统显然不足以对抗流行病。由于大流行,这些国家的供应链中断导致其生产和对外贸易停止,货物、服务和人员在这些国家境内外的流动受到最大限度的限制。在这个过程中,制造业和服务业都出现了收缩。飞行禁令主要打击的是旅游和运输部门,因此这将对许多国家的国际收支产生负面影响,特别是对发展中国家,破坏出口和旅游收入。结论:新冠肺炎疫情不仅影响个人日常生活,也对国家的社会经济生活产生影响。疫情发生后,人们不能像过去那样舒适地旅行,即使是为了家人、亲戚、朋友,他们也会站在一起,保持一段时间的社会隔离。此外,经济中的生产和消费习惯也将发生重大变化。看来人们需要很长时间才能恢复心理状态。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Benchmarking the Devastating Effects of COVID-19 on Economies and Social Life in the EU and In Selected Countries Mostly Affected By the Pandemic
Background: Life will not go on same after the pandemic since the countries are negatively affected economically, socially and politically due to coronavirus pandemic so that states, entrepreneurs, consumers and individuals will exhibit different behaviors than they showed before. As the social state raised during the pandemic, governments announced many economic and social packages to prevent both the real sector and their citizens. Aim: This study aims to investigate the growth rates of confirmed cases and deaths related to COVID-19 in the World, Europian Union and some selected countries mostly influenced by the pandemic, the health indicators for the countries and to analyse the effect of the pandemic on economy, trade and tourism. Methods: The data for the COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths was gathered from European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) for the world, EU-27, China, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Turkey, UK, USA and was smoothed with Simple Moving Average process to reduce volatility.The daily and cumulative empirical growth rates for COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths were calculated for each country to make comparison by logarithmic scale. The health infrastructure and human resources and the impact of COVID-19 on the economy and foreign trade for the countries are examined. Results: The number of deaths in Italy, France, Spain, UK and USA which were heavily affected by the pandemic exceeded ten thousand in a couple weeks. In some countries, it was clearly seen that the health system was not sufficient to fight against pandemic. The disruptions in the supply chain of the countries caused their production and external trade to halt and the mobility of goods, services and people in and outside the countries have been minimized due to the pandemic. Both the manufacturing industry and the service sectors have contracted in this process. Flight bans have hit mostly the tourism and transportation sectors so that this will have negative effects on the balance of payments for many countries especially for developing ones disrupting both export and tourism revenues. Conclusion: COVID-19 not only affected the individual’s daily life but also have influences on social and economic life of the countries. After the outbreak, it is seen that people cannot travel as comfortably as they are used to and that they will maintain social isolation for a while by standing against each other even for their family, relatives and friends. In addition, there will be a big change in production and consumption habits in the economy. It seems that it will take a long time for people to regain their psychology.
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