自发展过程模型的基本原理及其在远东地区地震预报中的应用问题

L. Bogomolov, V. Sychev
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引用次数: 0

摘要

自发展过程模型(SDP)所描述的前震(主震之前)期的地震激活可能是亚稳介质中低频应变波爆炸失稳的一种表现。强调连续波运动与离散地震事件流之间如此重要的关系是本文叙述的目的。因此,SDP模型的基本原理(实际上是方程)已经被修改,这与Malyshev在本期(A.I. Malyshev, L.K. Malysheva)上的文章相关。对库页岛和南千岛群岛地区地震危险性进行了先例外推估算,以改进该模型对地震危险性的估算。提出了一种揭示准平稳爆破后爆破起始点的新方法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Fundamental for self-developing processes model and problems of its application to earthquakes prediction in the Far East region
Seismic activation in the period of foreshocks (prior to the mainshock) described by the model of self-developing processes (SDP) is possibly a manifestation of explosive instability of low frequency straining waves in metastable medium. To highlight so nontrivial relationship of continuous wave motions and discrete seismic events flow is a goal of this narrative. Thus, the rationale of the SDP model (the equation, in reality) has been modified, which is of importance in relevance with the article by the Malyshevs in the current issue (A.I. Malyshev, L.K. Malysheva. Precedent-extrapolation estimate of the seismic hazard in the Sakhalin and South Kurils region) which is to improve the seismic hazard estimates by means of this model. A new way to reveal the very beginning of blow-up regime after quasi-stationary one is proposed.
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