Breakdown of EU-Russia Transnational Ties: Causes and Consequences

The article aims to explore the causes and consequences of the profound change in transnational ties between Russia and the European Union after February 24, 2022, that is, contacts that bypass official authorities and directly involve Russian and EU citizens (in business, science, education, culture, sports, and non-governmental organizations’ activities). The breakdown of ties is unique in speed and scale. Five causes of the breakdown of transnational ties have been identified: the position of EU officials towards Russian society; the rise of the war paradigm in the West and its pluralization (that is, its implementation on different tracks); reputational aspects; the perception of Russian society as homogeneous in supporting the operation in Ukraine; and pressure from Ukraine itself. As a result, relations between Russia and the EU have become more politicized and have lost the potential for resilience and mutual socialization. By limiting transnational ties, EU players help Russia’s ruling elite consolidate society and limit alternative thinking; they also change the vector of EU civilian power. At the same time, the rupture of transnational ties delivers a major blow to the universality of Western institutions, which will determine the pace of recovery both for Russian supporters of close relations with the West and for their opponents. The article also pinpoints certain mechanisms for rebuilding transnational ties in the medium term.