MODELING LAPSE RATES USING MACHINE LEARNING: A COMPARISON BETWEEN SURVIVAL FORESTS AND COX PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS TECHNIQUES

Abstract This study undertakes a comparative analysis of the performance of machine learning and traditional survival analysis techniques in the insurance industry. The techniques compared are the traditional Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH), Random Survival Forests (RSF) and Conditional Inference Forests (CIF) machine learning models. These techniques are applied in a case study of insurance portfolio of one of Ecuador’s largest insurer. This study demonstrates how machine learning techniques per- form better in predicting survival function measured by the C-index and Brier Score. It also demonstrates that the predictive contribution of covariates in the RSF model is consistent with the traditional CPH model. Keywords: survival analysis, machine learning, lapses rates, random survival forest