新冠肺炎大流行与波兰宏观经济形势

Paulina Pukin-Sowul, Aleksandra Ostrowska
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引用次数: 2

摘要

研究目的是评估COVID-19大流行对波兰宏观经济形势的影响。该研究采用了科学文献的批判性分析和统计数据的分析。文章的第一部分描述了COVID-19大流行影响经济的渠道。第二部分利用衡量经济形势和消费者信心指数的月度波动分析了企业家情绪的变化,随后在新冠肺炎疫情发展的背景下评估了波兰的宏观经济形势。这一评估是基于对2018年第一季度至2021年第二季度国内生产总值及其组成部分变化、劳动力市场状况和价格指数变化的季度数据的分析。研究结果表明,新冠肺炎疫情和波兰政府实施的限制措施对波兰经济造成了负面影响。企业家和消费者的情绪普遍恶化就是明证。在所分析的期间内,波兰的宏观经济情况也有所恶化,经济增长率下降,失业率上升,通货膨胀进程加速。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The COVID-19 pandemic and Poland’s macroeconomic situation
TThe research objective was to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the macroeconomic situation in Poland. The research employed critical analysis of scientific literature and an analysis of statistical data. The first part of the article describes the channels through which the COVID-19 pandemic affects economy. The second part contains an analysis of changes in the mood of entrepreneurs, using monthly fluctuations of the indices measuring economic situation and consumer confidence, followed by an evaluation of Poland’s macroeconomic situation in the context of the developing COVID-19 pandemic. This evaluation was based on an analysis of quarterly data concerning changes in the GDP and its component parts, the labour market situation and changes in price indices from the first quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2021. The research results showed that the COVID -19 pandemic and the restrictions imposed by the Polish government caused negative consequences in the Polish economy. This is evidenced by the worse mood prevalent among entrepreneurs and consumers. Over the time period analysed, the macroeconomic situation of Poland was observed to have deteriorated as well, with the decreased rate of economic growth, higher unemployment rate and accelerated inflation processes.  
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