工业生产指数-原油价格关系:俄罗斯，哈萨克斯坦和阿塞拜疆

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Economic Annals Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI:10.2298/eka2027119k

Fatih Kaplan, Ayşe Ünal

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引用次数: 1

摘要

本研究旨在运用频域因果分析方法，检验俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦和阿塞拜疆三国工业生产指数与原油价格之间的因果关系。为此，使用了1993-2019年期间的工业生产指数月度数据和布伦特原油价格数据。频域因果分析表明，从石油价格到工业生产指数的单向因果关系在中期对俄罗斯和阿塞拜疆有效，在短期对哈萨克斯坦有效。然而，从长期来看，石油价格与工业生产指数之间并不存在单向的因果关系。我们希望通过使用频域因果检验来检验这些国家的原油价格对工业生产与周期性的相互关系，从而为文献做出贡献。这项研究的结果有望作为工业生产政策的工具。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Industrial production index - crude oil price nexus: Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan

The study aims to examine the causality between industrial production index and crude oil price for Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan by using Frequency Domain Causality Analysis. For this purpose, the monthly data of the industrial production index and Brent oil price data over the period 1993-2019 are used. The Frequency Domain Causality Analysis suggests that the uni-directional causality relationship runs from oil prices to industrial production index is valid in the medium run for Russia and Azerbaijan and in the short run for Kazakhstan. However, there is no uni-directional causality linkage between oil prices and industrial production index in the long run for any of the countries. We hope to contribute to the literature by using frequency-domain causality test which examines the interrelation of crude oil prices on industrial production with the periodicity in these countries. The finding of this study is expected to serve as a tool for industrial production policy.

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来源期刊

Economic Annals Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)

CiteScore

0.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

18 weeks

期刊介绍： Economic Annals is an academic journal that has been published on a quarterly basis since 1955, initially under its Serbian name of Ekonomski anali (EconLit). Since 2006 it has been published exclusively in English. It is published by the Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, Serbia. The journal publishes research in all areas of economics. The Editorial Board welcomes contributions that explore economic issues in a comparative perspective with a focus on transition and emerging economies in Europe and around the world. The journal encourages the submission of original unpublished works, not under consideration by other journals or publications. All submitted papers undergo a double blind refereeing process. Authors are expected to follow standard publication procedures [Instructions to Authors], to recognise the values of the international academic community and to respect the journal’s Policy.