利用全球VAR方法模拟COVID-19在俄罗斯联邦的传播

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.22394/1993-7601-2022-65-117-138

A. Zubarev, M. Kirillova

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究的目的是分析COVID - 19在俄罗斯的传播，同时考虑到地区之间的各种联系以及使用全局向量自回归(GVAR)隔离策略的有效性。我们使用了有关冠状病毒新病例、自我隔离指数、反映大流行社会意识的谷歌趋势指数和公共汽车、火车和飞机乘客周转率的区域数据。结果发现，在大多数地区，新发COVID - 19病例的数量对莫斯科疫情冲击有显著反应。在第二次浪潮中，反应速度更快，但规模更小。第二波上升期间的新发病例动态预测与许多地区的实际动态相当接近。莫斯科更严格的社交距离策略减少了一些地区的病例数，但同时也增加了其他一些地区的病例数。

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Modeling COVID-19 spread in the Russian Federation using global VAR approach

The aim of this study is to analyse the spread of COVID‐19 in Russia taking into account various connections between regions and the effectiveness of isolation strategies using global vector autoregression (GVAR). We use regional data on new cases of coronavirus, self‐isolation index, Google trends index reflecting social awareness of pandemic and passenger turnover in buses, trains and planes. It was found that the number of new COVID‐19 cases reacts to Moscow outbreak shock significantly in most regions. During the second wave, the speed of reaction was faster but of a smaller size. The forecasts of new cases dynamics during the rising of the second wave turn out to be rather close to the actual dynamics in many regions. More rigorous social distancing strategy in Moscow reduced the number of cases in some regions but at the same time raised that number in some others.

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来源期刊

Applied Econometrics Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

0.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Applied Econometrics is an international journal published bi-monthly, plus 1 additional issue (total 7 issues). It aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with the application of existing as well as new econometric techniques to a wide variety of problems in economics and related subjects, covering topics in measurement, estimation, testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. The emphasis is on the careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques and the appropriate interpretation of the results. The economic content of the articles is stressed. A special feature of the Journal is its emphasis on the replicability of results by other researchers. To achieve this aim, authors are expected to make available a complete set of the data used as well as any specialised computer programs employed through a readily accessible medium, preferably in a machine-readable form. The use of microcomputers in applied research and transferability of data is emphasised. The Journal also features occasional sections of short papers re-evaluating previously published papers. The intention of the Journal of Applied Econometrics is to provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics which cuts across areas of specialisation, involves transferable techniques, and is easily replicable by other researchers. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged. The Journal also aims to publish review and survey articles that make recent developments in the field of theoretical and applied econometrics more readily accessible to applied economists in general.