Expected effect of palivizumab on the reduction of infant mortality and hospitalizations rates due to respiratory syncytial virus infection

Objective. To assess the impact of preventive therapy with palivizumab against respiratory syncytial viral (RSV) infection on the indicator of the implementation of the Unified plan to achieve national goals of the Russian Federation and on the infant mortality rate. Patients and methods. Preterm infants born prior to 35 weeks gestation were considered as target population for immunization with palivizumab. We modeled an increase in palivizumab coverage to 25% by 2024 and calculated the expected number of deaths and hospitalizations that can be prevented using palivizumab. We also calculated targeted values of infant mortality reduction (for the entire country and individual regions) that can be achieved by increasing palivizumab coverage. Results. Annual increase of RSV prophylaxis coverage will prevent 49, 63 and 76 deaths in Russia in 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively. This will ensure a 36.3%, 48.4%, and 60.5% reduction in infant mortality in 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, which will facilitate the achievement of targeted indicators specified in the National development goals of the Russian Federation. Moreover, it will prevent 904, 1142, and 1381 hospitalizations due to RSV in 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively. Conclusion. Wider use of palivizumab will decrease the hospitalization rate and will facilitate the achievement of the targeted indicator ‘reduction of infant mortality’ within the Federal Project ‘Improvement of children's healthcare.’ Key words: infant mortality, preterm infants, palivizumab, prevention, respiratory syncytial virus infection