没有冒险,就没有收获

IF 0.4 4区 工程技术 Q3 Chemistry
P. Hoeller, Claude Giorno
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引用次数: 0

摘要

最近对《稳定与增长公约》(Stability and Growth Pact)的改革为欧盟各国政府暂时突破3%的赤字上限提供了更多的回旋余地,如果这有助于实施最初昂贵的改革的话。但这一原则的实施并不明显,因为预算需要具体说明改革的初始和多年预算成本和收益情况。预算还应明确指出不作为的财政成本,以便对各国做出平衡的判断。在各种可用选项之间进行权衡。本文首先评估了实施《稳定与增长公约》中这种新形式的灵活性所需要的信息。然后,它提供了模拟练习,以突出欧元区协调结构改革的积极预算影响,以及需要适当的货币政策反应,以确保需求适应供应条件的改善迅速。预算收益仍将取决于改革的类型及其对就业和生产率的影响。另一方面,单个国家的国家政策倡议可能只产生有限的影响,特别是在短期内和在大国的情况下。事实上,在货币联盟中,较大国家的内生调整机制的力量似乎较弱。最后,新西兰和澳大利亚的经验表明,改革在预算和总体经济表现方面的长期效益是显著的。即便如此,要理清起作用的各种力量并非易事。从根本上说,结构性改革和实施明智的财政框架往往是齐头并进的。事实上,这可能是一枚硬币的两面。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Nothing ventured, nothing gained
The recent reform of the Stability and Growth Pact provides more leeway for EU governments to temporarily breach the 3% deficit limit if this facilitates the implementation of initially expensive reforms. But the implementation of this principle is not obvious as budgets would need to specify the initial and multi-annual budgetary cost and benefit profile of reforms. Budgets should also be explicit about the fiscal cost of inaction to allow a balanced judgment of countries? trade-offs between the various options available. This paper first assesses the information requirements to implement this new form of flexibility built into the Stability and Growth Pact. It then provides simulation exercises to highlight the positive budgetary effects of coordinated structural reforms in the euro area as well as the need for an adequate monetary policy response to make sure that demand adjusts to the improved supply conditions swiftly. The budgetary gains would still depend on the type of reform and their impact on employment and productivity. On the other hand, national policy initiatives by a single country may only have a limited impact, especially in the short term and in the case of a large country. Indeed, in monetary union, the strength of endogenous adjustment mechanisms appears to be weaker in larger countries. Finally, the experience of New Zealand and Australia has shown that the longer-term benefits of reforms both in terms of the budget and overall economic performance are significant. Even so, it is not easy to disentangle the various forces at play. Fundamentally, structural reform and the implementation of smart fiscal frameworks tend to go hand in hand ? indeed may be two sides of the same coin.
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来源期刊
Chemical Engineering Progress
Chemical Engineering Progress 工程技术-工程:化工
CiteScore
1.00
自引率
25.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Chemical Engineering Progress (CEP) is the flagship publication of the American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE), the world''s leading organization for chemical engineers. More than 38,000 professionals receive the magazine each month. According to CEP’s latest demographic statistics, nearly 85% of these influential readers work in industry, with the rest employed in academia and government. More than 23,000 students worldwide have online access to every issue. CEP''s mandate is to provide essential technical and professional information to this key audience.
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