汇率失调会影响经济增长吗?-来自克罗地亚的证据

IF 0.4 Q4 ECONOMICS

Croatian Economic Survey Pub Date : 2014-12-29 DOI:10.15179/CES.16.2.2

Tonći Svilokos, Meri Šuman Tolić

{"title":"汇率失调会影响经济增长吗?-来自克罗地亚的证据","authors":"Tonći Svilokos, Meri Šuman Tolić","doi":"10.15179/CES.16.2.2","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The main objective of this paper is to measure the currency misalignment of the Croatian kuna and to reveal whether it affects economic growth for the period 2001 (Q1) to 2013 (Q3). The estimate relies on recent cointegration techniques, VAR models and Granger causality tests. The findings show that there are two misalignment sub-periods for the Croatian kuna: undervaluation in the period from 2000Q1 to 2007Q4 and overvaluation in the period from 2008Q1 to 2013Q3. The evidence reveals that for the whole sample period, the Granger causality goes from misalignments (MISA) to GDP growth under the 10 percent significance level. However, for the two sub-periods no evidence of Granger causality from MISA to GDP growth or vice versa is found. The research also reveals that the currency misalignments in the observed period are relatively small.","PeriodicalId":42059,"journal":{"name":"Croatian Economic Survey","volume":"16 1","pages":"29-58"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4000,"publicationDate":"2014-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.15179/CES.16.2.2","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Does Misaligned Currency Affect Economic Growth? – Evidence from Croatia\",\"authors\":\"Tonći Svilokos, Meri Šuman Tolić\",\"doi\":\"10.15179/CES.16.2.2\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The main objective of this paper is to measure the currency misalignment of the Croatian kuna and to reveal whether it affects economic growth for the period 2001 (Q1) to 2013 (Q3). The estimate relies on recent cointegration techniques, VAR models and Granger causality tests. The findings show that there are two misalignment sub-periods for the Croatian kuna: undervaluation in the period from 2000Q1 to 2007Q4 and overvaluation in the period from 2008Q1 to 2013Q3. The evidence reveals that for the whole sample period, the Granger causality goes from misalignments (MISA) to GDP growth under the 10 percent significance level. However, for the two sub-periods no evidence of Granger causality from MISA to GDP growth or vice versa is found. The research also reveals that the currency misalignments in the observed period are relatively small.\",\"PeriodicalId\":42059,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Croatian Economic Survey\",\"volume\":\"16 1\",\"pages\":\"29-58\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2014-12-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.15179/CES.16.2.2\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Croatian Economic Survey\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.15179/CES.16.2.2\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Croatian Economic Survey","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.15179/CES.16.2.2","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

本文的主要目的是衡量克罗地亚库纳的货币失调，并揭示它是否影响2001年(Q1)至2013年(Q3)期间的经济增长。估计依赖于最近的协整技术，VAR模型和格兰杰因果检验。研究结果表明，克罗地亚库纳存在两个失调子时期:2000年第一季度至2007年第四季度低估，2008年第一季度至2013年第三季度高估。证据表明，在整个样本期内，格兰杰因果关系从MISA (MISA)到GDP增长在10%显著性水平下。然而，对于这两个子时期，没有证据表明MISA与GDP增长之间存在格兰杰因果关系，反之亦然。研究还表明，在观察到的时期内，货币失调相对较小。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Does Misaligned Currency Affect Economic Growth? – Evidence from Croatia

The main objective of this paper is to measure the currency misalignment of the Croatian kuna and to reveal whether it affects economic growth for the period 2001 (Q1) to 2013 (Q3). The estimate relies on recent cointegration techniques, VAR models and Granger causality tests. The findings show that there are two misalignment sub-periods for the Croatian kuna: undervaluation in the period from 2000Q1 to 2007Q4 and overvaluation in the period from 2008Q1 to 2013Q3. The evidence reveals that for the whole sample period, the Granger causality goes from misalignments (MISA) to GDP growth under the 10 percent significance level. However, for the two sub-periods no evidence of Granger causality from MISA to GDP growth or vice versa is found. The research also reveals that the currency misalignments in the observed period are relatively small.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Croatian Economic Survey ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

0.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

12 weeks

期刊介绍： The journal Croatian Economic Survey is a Diamond Open Access journal defined by the following characteristics: -Peer review: the article goes through the journal''s process of a double-blind peer review. -Public access: both the author and the public have immediate access to the final, published version of the article. -Funding model: both the author and the public pay no fee to the journal. The journal is financially supported by the Ministry of Science and Education of the Republic of Croatia. Croatian Economic Survey is an English-language, peer-reviewed scholarly journal published by the Institute of Economics, Zagreb in Croatia and financed by the Croatian Ministry of Science and Education. The journal aims to serve as a forum for academics and practitioners by publishing high-quality research papers on topics in all areas of economics. Special focus is given to post-socialist Europe. Comparative studies are especially encouraged, since these countries share a similar socio-economic background and comparative studies offer a valuable source of insight for policy formulation as well as a basis for competitive benchmarking. The journal welcomes empirical and policy-oriented papers relevant to a broader international audience. Contributions need not be limited solely to economics; submissions from other related disciplines are encouraged.