国内冲突、经济冲击和夜间灯光

IF 1.7 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI:10.1515/peps-2015-0013

A. Ahrens

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引用次数: 5

摘要

摘要本研究的重点是经济增长冲击对非洲爆发内战风险的影响。该数据集涵盖1992-2010年期间的非洲一级行政单位。由于非洲的次国家级GDP数据无法获得，所以只能用卫星的夜间灯光数据来预测经济增长。然后用降雨和温度变量来衡量经济增长，以确定经济增长对冲突风险的因果影响。此外，估计了一个空间自回归面板模型来检验溢出效应的作用。估算结果表明，经济增长会产生强烈的溢出效应，但没有证据表明经济增长会对国内冲突产生重大影响。

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Civil Conflicts, Economic Shocks and Night-time Lights

Abstract This study focuses on the effect of economic growth shocks on the risk of civil conflict outbreak in Africa. The data set covers African first-order administrative units and the time period 1992–2010. Since sub-national GDP is not available for Africa, night-time light data from satellites is used to predict economic growth. Economic growth is then instrumented with rainfall and temperature variables in order to identify the causal effect of economic growth on conflict risk. Furthermore, a spatial autoregressive panel model is estimated to examine the role of spill-over effects. Estimation results suggest strong spill-over effects, but provide no evidence for a significant effect of economic growth on civil conflict.

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来源期刊

Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy POLITICAL SCIENCE-

CiteScore

2.50

自引率

10.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The journal accepts rigorous, non-technical papers especially in research methods in peace science, but also regular papers dealing with all aspects of the peace science field, from pure abstract theory to practical applied research. As a guide to topics: - Arms Control and International Security - Artificial Intelligence and Cognitive Studies - Behavioral Studies - Conflict Analysis and Management - Cooperation, Alliances and Games - Crises and War Studies - Critical Economic Aspects of the Global Crises - Deterrence Theory - Empirical and Historical Studies on the Causes of War - Game, Prospect and Related Theory - Harmony and Conflict - Hierarchy Theory