先例、路径依赖和类比推理

IF 1.3 4区社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES

Asian Survey Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.1525/as.2022.1789165

S. Chan

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引用次数: 4

摘要

本文讨论了俄乌战争对中美关系的战略影响，特别是关于这场冲突如何影响台湾海峡两岸的未来发展。我在三个主题下探讨这个问题:先例的影响、路径依赖和类比推理。乌克兰战争打断了华盛顿将重心转向亚洲、专注于遏制崛起的中国的意图，也导致莫斯科和北京的关系更加紧密。最后，它可能降低了美国在未来可能发生的涉及台湾的危机中进行直接军事干预的可能性。

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Precedent, Path Dependency, and Reasoning by Analogy

This essay addresses the strategic implications of the Russo–Ukrainian War as it pertains to relations between China and the US, especially with respect to how this conflict may inform prospective developments across the Taiwan Strait. I pursue this question under three topics: the influence of precedents, path dependency, and reasoning by analogy. The war in Ukraine has interrupted Washington’s intention to pivot to Asia to focus on containment of a rising China, and it has also caused Moscow and Beijing to align more closely. Finally, it may have made the direct military intervention of the US in a possible future crisis involving Taiwan less likely.

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来源期刊

Asian Survey AREA STUDIES-

CiteScore

1.80

自引率

22.20%

发文量

期刊介绍： The only academic journal of its kind produced in the United States, Asian Survey provides a comprehensive retrospective of contemporary international relations within South, Southeast, and East Asian nations. As the Asian community’s matrix of activities becomes increasingly complex, it is essential to have a sourcebook for sound analysis of current events, governmental policies, socio-economic development, and financial institutions. In Asian Survey you’ll find that sourcebook. Asian Survey consistently publishes articles by leading American and foreign scholars, whose views supplement and contest meanings disseminated by the media.