伊朗高原GIII分布ω-上界幅度的区域变化

IF 2 4区地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

Acta Geophysica Pub Date : 2016-12-02 DOI:10.1515/acgeo-2016-0038

H. Mohammadi, Y. Bayrak

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引用次数: 0

摘要

伊朗高原似乎不是一个单一的地壳块体，而是一个由Alborz-Azerbaijan、Zagros、Kopeh-Dagh、Makran以及伊朗中部和东部组成的区域组合。采用Gumbel’s III渐近分布方法(GIII)和Kijko-Sellevoll方法预测的最大震级，对伊朗高原各发震带未来发生最大震级(Mmax)的可能性进行了检验。为此，利用1900-2012年仪器期间的均匀完整的地震活动数据库，研究了该地区29个发震带。危险参数(上界震级(ω)、未来100年最可能发生的地震震级(M100)和Kijko-Sellevoll方法估计的最大震级(max MK−Smax)的空间映射表明，伊朗中部和东部、Alborz和阿塞拜疆、Kopeh-Dagh和SE Zagros是下一次发生大地震的危险地区。

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Regional Variations of the ω-upper Bound Magnitude of GIII Distribution in the Iranian Plateau

The Iranian Plateau does not appear to be a single crustal block, but an assemblage of zones comprising the Alborz—Azerbaijan, Zagros, Kopeh—Dagh, Makran, and Central and East Iran. The Gumbel’s III asymptotic distribution method (GIII) and maximum magnitude expected by Kijko—Sellevoll method is applied in order to check the potentiality of the each seismogenic zone in the Iranian Plateau for the future occurrence of maximum magnitude (Mmax). For this purpose, a homogeneous and complete seismicity database of the instrumental period during 1900–2012 is used in 29 seismogenic zones of the examined region. The spatial mapping of hazard parameters (upper bound magnitude (ω), most probable earthquake magnitude in next 100 years (M100) and maximum magnitude expected by maximum magnitude estimated by Kijko—Sellevoll method (max MK − Smax) reveals that Central and East Iran, Alborz and Azerbaijan, Kopeh—Dagh and SE Zagros are a dangerous place for the next occurrence of a large earthquake.

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来源期刊

Acta Geophysica 地学-地球化学与地球物理

CiteScore

3.90

自引率

13.00%

发文量

251

审稿时长

5.3 months

期刊介绍： Acta Geophysica is open to all kinds of manuscripts including research and review articles, short communications, comments to published papers, letters to the Editor as well as book reviews. Some of the issues are fully devoted to particular topics; we do encourage proposals for such topical issues. We accept submissions from scientists world-wide, offering high scientific and editorial standard and comprehensive treatment of the discussed topics.