{"title":"比勒菲尔德实际上可能不存在——来自官方人口数据的经验证据","authors":"Patrick Winter","doi":"10.1515/jbnst-2022-0038","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The “Bielefeld conspiracy” has long disputed the existence of Bielefeld, a (supposed) German city. In this paper, an approach is developed to test such a theory empirically by auditing officially reported population numbers, arguing that real cities would not fake these. It is shown that Bielefeld’s data, in fact, violate the Benford law, a statistical law that they should follow if they were genuine. This anomaly is found only for Bielefeld, in contrast to all other tested similar and dissimilar cities, across two decades, and with highest significance by five statistical tests. The Bielefeld conspiracy remains as the most or even only plausible explanation for these findings.","PeriodicalId":45967,"journal":{"name":"Jahrbucher Fur Nationalokonomie Und Statistik","volume":"243 1","pages":"29 - 38"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1000,"publicationDate":"2022-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Bielefeld May In Fact Not Exist – Empirical Evidence From Official Population Data\",\"authors\":\"Patrick Winter\",\"doi\":\"10.1515/jbnst-2022-0038\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract The “Bielefeld conspiracy” has long disputed the existence of Bielefeld, a (supposed) German city. In this paper, an approach is developed to test such a theory empirically by auditing officially reported population numbers, arguing that real cities would not fake these. It is shown that Bielefeld’s data, in fact, violate the Benford law, a statistical law that they should follow if they were genuine. This anomaly is found only for Bielefeld, in contrast to all other tested similar and dissimilar cities, across two decades, and with highest significance by five statistical tests. The Bielefeld conspiracy remains as the most or even only plausible explanation for these findings.\",\"PeriodicalId\":45967,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Jahrbucher Fur Nationalokonomie Und Statistik\",\"volume\":\"243 1\",\"pages\":\"29 - 38\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-11-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Jahrbucher Fur Nationalokonomie Und Statistik\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2022-0038\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Jahrbucher Fur Nationalokonomie Und Statistik","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2022-0038","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Bielefeld May In Fact Not Exist – Empirical Evidence From Official Population Data
Abstract The “Bielefeld conspiracy” has long disputed the existence of Bielefeld, a (supposed) German city. In this paper, an approach is developed to test such a theory empirically by auditing officially reported population numbers, arguing that real cities would not fake these. It is shown that Bielefeld’s data, in fact, violate the Benford law, a statistical law that they should follow if they were genuine. This anomaly is found only for Bielefeld, in contrast to all other tested similar and dissimilar cities, across two decades, and with highest significance by five statistical tests. The Bielefeld conspiracy remains as the most or even only plausible explanation for these findings.
期刊介绍:
Die Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik existieren seit dem Jahr 1863. Die Herausgeber fühlen sich der Tradition verpflichtet, die Zeitschrift für kritische, innovative und entwicklungsträchtige Beiträge offen zu halten. Weder thematisch noch methodisch sollen die Veröffentlichungen auf jeweils herrschende Lehrmeinungen eingeengt werden.