Export Competition in the Man-Made Fiber Industry

The objective of this study was to investigate competition in the cellulosic and non-cellulosic fiber industry among the major exporting regions of the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). Markov analysis was used to analyze the competition among the OECD exporting regions from 1975 to 1986 and to project their market shares from 1987 to 2000.

The results of the Markov analysis indicated considerable variations in retention rates for the five exporting regions. In the case of non-cellulosic fibers, changes in market shares were projected to continue through the year 2000, whereas few changes were projected for the cellulosic fibers. This result is in keeping with the maturity of the cellulosic fiber industry. These projections must be interpreted with caution in view of major economic and political changes that have occurred, and continue to occur, in Europe and elsewhere since 1986. However, the pro jections are still of use because a comparison of actual and projected market shares will indicate changes in the underlying set of forces affecting the market shares of various exporting regions.