{"title":"生长期温度对澳大利亚葡萄价格的影响","authors":"G. Puga, K. Anderson, F. Doko Tchatoka","doi":"10.1111/ajgw.12566","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Background and Aims</h3>\n \n <p>Cross-sectional models are useful for estimating the impact that climate and climate change have on grape prices due to changes in grape composition. The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of growing season temperature (GST) on grape prices in Australia using cross-sectional data.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Methods and Results</h3>\n \n <p>We use data on average price by cultivar and region for a 10 year period. We estimate a model using (area-) weighted least squares and variables from a principal component analysis to control for 103 characteristics that relate to the production system used in each of 26 regions. Results suggest that a GST increase of 1°C leads to a decrease of 9% in the average price of grapes. A LASSO model that we use as a robustness check suggests similar results: a GST increase of 1°C leads to a decrease of 7.3% in the average price of grapes.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Conclusions</h3>\n \n <p>Failing to control for characteristics that relate to the production system overestimates the impact of GST on grape prices, suggesting that changes to variables in a production system may mitigate deleterious changes to grape composition due to climate change.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Significance of the Study</h3>\n \n <p>This study contributes to the understanding of the issue of omitted variable bias in cross-sectional models, and how to deal with this issue when analysing the impact of climate and climate change in grape and wine research.</p>\n </section>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":8582,"journal":{"name":"Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research","volume":"28 4","pages":"651-657"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5000,"publicationDate":"2022-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajgw.12566","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Impact of growing season temperature on grape prices in Australia\",\"authors\":\"G. Puga, K. Anderson, F. Doko Tchatoka\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/ajgw.12566\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div>\\n \\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Background and Aims</h3>\\n \\n <p>Cross-sectional models are useful for estimating the impact that climate and climate change have on grape prices due to changes in grape composition. The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of growing season temperature (GST) on grape prices in Australia using cross-sectional data.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Methods and Results</h3>\\n \\n <p>We use data on average price by cultivar and region for a 10 year period. We estimate a model using (area-) weighted least squares and variables from a principal component analysis to control for 103 characteristics that relate to the production system used in each of 26 regions. Results suggest that a GST increase of 1°C leads to a decrease of 9% in the average price of grapes. A LASSO model that we use as a robustness check suggests similar results: a GST increase of 1°C leads to a decrease of 7.3% in the average price of grapes.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Conclusions</h3>\\n \\n <p>Failing to control for characteristics that relate to the production system overestimates the impact of GST on grape prices, suggesting that changes to variables in a production system may mitigate deleterious changes to grape composition due to climate change.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Significance of the Study</h3>\\n \\n <p>This study contributes to the understanding of the issue of omitted variable bias in cross-sectional models, and how to deal with this issue when analysing the impact of climate and climate change in grape and wine research.</p>\\n </section>\\n </div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":8582,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research\",\"volume\":\"28 4\",\"pages\":\"651-657\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-08-09\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajgw.12566\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajgw.12566\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"农林科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajgw.12566","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Impact of growing season temperature on grape prices in Australia
Background and Aims
Cross-sectional models are useful for estimating the impact that climate and climate change have on grape prices due to changes in grape composition. The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of growing season temperature (GST) on grape prices in Australia using cross-sectional data.
Methods and Results
We use data on average price by cultivar and region for a 10 year period. We estimate a model using (area-) weighted least squares and variables from a principal component analysis to control for 103 characteristics that relate to the production system used in each of 26 regions. Results suggest that a GST increase of 1°C leads to a decrease of 9% in the average price of grapes. A LASSO model that we use as a robustness check suggests similar results: a GST increase of 1°C leads to a decrease of 7.3% in the average price of grapes.
Conclusions
Failing to control for characteristics that relate to the production system overestimates the impact of GST on grape prices, suggesting that changes to variables in a production system may mitigate deleterious changes to grape composition due to climate change.
Significance of the Study
This study contributes to the understanding of the issue of omitted variable bias in cross-sectional models, and how to deal with this issue when analysing the impact of climate and climate change in grape and wine research.
期刊介绍：
The Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research provides a forum for the exchange of information about new and significant research in viticulture, oenology and related fields, and aims to promote these disciplines throughout the world. The Journal publishes results from original research in all areas of viticulture and oenology. This includes issues relating to wine, table and drying grape production; grapevine and rootstock biology, genetics, diseases and improvement; viticultural practices; juice and wine production technologies; vine and wine microbiology; quality effects of processing, packaging and inputs; wine chemistry; sensory science and consumer preferences; and environmental impacts of grape and wine production. Research related to other fermented or distilled beverages may also be considered. In addition to full-length research papers and review articles, short research or technical papers presenting new and highly topical information derived from a complete study (i.e. not preliminary data) may also be published. Special features and supplementary issues comprising the proceedings of workshops and conferences will appear periodically.
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