一种考虑偶然性参数的峰值负荷需求预测概率方法

IF 1.7 Q2 Engineering
Md. Nasmus Sakib Khan Shabbir, M. Z. Ali, Xiaodong Liang, Muhammad Sifatul Alam Chowdhury
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引用次数: 3

摘要

准确的负荷预测是电力系统发电规划的关键环节。负荷预测需要考虑系统的偶然性参数及其动态特性。本文提出了一种考虑偶然性参数的电力系统峰值负荷概率预测算法。利用卡方分布检验和历史数据,可以确定偶然性参数的概率分布。以孟加拉为例,利用所开发的自适应算法和计算得到的概率分布,进行蒙特卡罗模拟,对孟加拉的电力需求和发电情景进行预测。在灵敏度研究中,利用贝叶斯网络评估了偶然性参数的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Probabilistic Approach Considering Contingency Parameters for Peak Load Demand Forecasting
Accurate load forecasting is a critical step for power system generation planning. Contingency parameters of the system and their dynamic characteristics should be taken into account for the purpose of load forecasting. In this paper, a probabilistic load forecasting algorithm considering contingency parameters is developed for the peak load forecasting. Using the chi-square distribution test and historical data, the probabilistic distribution of contingency parameters can be determined. In a case study, the Monte Carlo simulation is run to forecast load demand and generation scenarios of Bangladesh based on the developed adaptive algorithm and the calculated probabilistic distribution. The influence of contingency parameters is evaluated using a Bayesian network in a sensitivity study.
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来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
27
期刊介绍: The Canadian Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (ISSN-0840-8688), issued quarterly, has been publishing high-quality refereed scientific papers in all areas of electrical and computer engineering since 1976
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