中等复杂气候模式下欧洲极端冬季降水的罕见事件模拟

IF 4.4 2区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Pub Date : 2023-04-04 DOI:10.1029/2022MS003537

Jeroen Wouters, Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, Len C. Shaffrey

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引用次数: 2

摘要

我们测试了罕见事件模拟(RES)算法在气候模式中加速欧洲极端冬季降雨采样的应用。将系谱粒子分析算法应用于中等复杂环流模型PlaSim，该算法是一种中间中断模拟以克隆极端事件发展过程的集成方法。我们表明，该算法大大减少了估计极端事件概率所需的数值努力，证明了季节性极端事件RES的潜力。

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Rare Event Simulation of Extreme European Winter Rainfall in an Intermediate Complexity Climate Model

We test the application of a rare event simulation (RES) algorithm to accelerate the sampling of extreme winter rainfall over Europe in a climate model. The genealogical particle analysis algorithm, an ensemble method that interrupts the simulation at intermediate times to clone realizations in which an extreme event is developing, is applied to the intermediate complexity general circulation model PlaSim. We show that the algorithm strongly reduces the numerical effort required to estimate probabilities of extremes, demonstrating the potential of RES of seasonal precipitation extremes.

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来源期刊

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-

CiteScore

11.40

自引率

11.80%

发文量

241

审稿时长

>12 weeks

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