HISTORY AS FUTURE—TIME, PREDICTION, AND HISTORICAL NARRATIVE IN THE ZUO ZHUAN

Abstract This article demonstrates that historical narrative in the Zuo zhuan is founded on the concept of “timeliness,” that is, on the understanding of time as being endowed with moral qualities. The choice between a “timely” (shi 時) or “untimely” (bu shi 不時) course of action determines the success or failure of the person involved in it. The origins of the ideas of time that shape the historical narrative of Zuo zhuan can be traced to mantic literature of the same period, such as almanacs. Early Chinese writers of history—like diviners—strove to explain the past in order to predict the future. Seen in this light, “knowing history” implies understanding and mastering the mechanisms that drive it; and looking into the past is tantamount to “knowing” the future. 提要 本文論證《左傳》中的歷史敘事建立在 「時」與「不時」的概念上。敘事裡人物行動的結果是否成功取決於「時」（則吉）或「不時」（則凶）。此概念源自同時期日書與月令等傳統。中國早期歷史記述者試圖憑藉過去預測未來。從這一角度來看，了解歷史意味著掌握驅動歷史事件的因素。以史為鑒對於「預知」未來起著至關重要的作用。