1918年流感大流行期间美国经济发生了什么?高频数据透视

IF 2.5 1区历史学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic History Pub Date : 2022-02-21 DOI:10.1017/s0022050722000055

François R. Velde

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引用次数: 12

摘要

经济衰退与疫情的开始同时发生，但与1920/21年的衰退相比，这次衰退是短暂而温和的。横截面高频数据表明，疫情对劳动力供应产生了剧烈但短暂的影响，没有随之而来的溢出效应;这次经济衰退虽然短暂，但主要是由于战争的结束。我用时间序列方法和经济流行病学模型的结构估计分析了每周城市一级的死亡率数据和经济指标:阻止传染的干预措施以很少的经济成本降低了死亡率，可能是因为减少了感染减轻了对劳动力的影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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What Happened to the U.S. Economy during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data

An economic downturn coincided with the start of the epidemic but the recession was short and moderate, compared with that of 1920/21. Cross-sectional high-frequency data indicate that the epidemic affected the labor supply sharply but briefly with no ensuing spill-overs; most of the recession, brief as it was, was due to the end of the war. I analyze weekly city-level mortality data and economic indicators with time series methods and structural estimation of an economic-epidemiological model: interventions to hinder the contagion reduced mortality at little economic cost, probably because reduced infections mitigated the impact on the labor force.

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来源期刊

Journal of Economic History Multiple-

CiteScore

2.80

自引率

4.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Economic History is devoted to the multidisciplinary study of history and economics, and is of interest not only to economic historians but to social and demographic historians, as well as economists in general. The journal has broad coverage, in terms of both methodology and geographic scope. Topics covered include money and banking, trade, manufacturing, technology, transportation, industrial organisation, labour, agriculture, servitude, demography, education, economic growth, and the role of government and regulation. In addition, an extensive book review section keeps readers informed about the latest work in economic history and related fields.