{"title":"寿命、生育率和实际汇率","authors":"Xiaohui Liu, Zhihao Zhou, Jing Zhang","doi":"10.1111/cwe.12467","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>We build a simple overlapping generation model to investigate the effect of life expectancy on the real exchange rate where fertility is chosen endogenously. The model reveals that, although the overall effect of life expectancy on the real exchange rate is not certain, longer life expectancy tends to cause the real exchange rate to depreciate by reducing fertility. Fertility thus serves as a mediator in the effect of life expectancy on the real exchange rate. Evidence from 148 economies (1980–2018) shows a statistically significant and robust negative relationship between life expectancy and the real exchange rate. It is estimated that a 1 year increase in life expectancy is associated with a 1.5 percent depreciation in the real exchange rate. The evidence also confirms the mediated effect of fertility. The mediated effect that fertility exerts accounts for 30 percent to 50 percent of the total effect, depending on the real exchange rate index used.</p>","PeriodicalId":51603,"journal":{"name":"China & World Economy","volume":"31 2","pages":"26-57"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2023-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Longevity, Fertility, and the Real Exchange Rate\",\"authors\":\"Xiaohui Liu, Zhihao Zhou, Jing Zhang\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/cwe.12467\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>We build a simple overlapping generation model to investigate the effect of life expectancy on the real exchange rate where fertility is chosen endogenously. The model reveals that, although the overall effect of life expectancy on the real exchange rate is not certain, longer life expectancy tends to cause the real exchange rate to depreciate by reducing fertility. Fertility thus serves as a mediator in the effect of life expectancy on the real exchange rate. Evidence from 148 economies (1980–2018) shows a statistically significant and robust negative relationship between life expectancy and the real exchange rate. It is estimated that a 1 year increase in life expectancy is associated with a 1.5 percent depreciation in the real exchange rate. The evidence also confirms the mediated effect of fertility. The mediated effect that fertility exerts accounts for 30 percent to 50 percent of the total effect, depending on the real exchange rate index used.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":51603,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"China & World Economy\",\"volume\":\"31 2\",\"pages\":\"26-57\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-01-24\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"China & World Economy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cwe.12467\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"China & World Economy","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cwe.12467","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
We build a simple overlapping generation model to investigate the effect of life expectancy on the real exchange rate where fertility is chosen endogenously. The model reveals that, although the overall effect of life expectancy on the real exchange rate is not certain, longer life expectancy tends to cause the real exchange rate to depreciate by reducing fertility. Fertility thus serves as a mediator in the effect of life expectancy on the real exchange rate. Evidence from 148 economies (1980–2018) shows a statistically significant and robust negative relationship between life expectancy and the real exchange rate. It is estimated that a 1 year increase in life expectancy is associated with a 1.5 percent depreciation in the real exchange rate. The evidence also confirms the mediated effect of fertility. The mediated effect that fertility exerts accounts for 30 percent to 50 percent of the total effect, depending on the real exchange rate index used.
期刊介绍：
The bi-monthly China & World Economy was launched in 1993 by the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). It is the only English-language journal in China devoted to the topic of the Chinese economy. The journal aims to provide foreign readers with an objective, impartial, analytical and up-to-date account of the problems faced and progress made by China in its interaction with the world economy. Among its contributors are many distinguished Chinese economists from both academic and government circles. As such, it has become a unique window on China and is essential reading for all those concerned with China"s development.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
