埃塞俄比亚西北部贡达尔市城市土地利用动态的马尔可夫链和元胞自动机建模

IF 3.9 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
Ergo Beyene , Amare Sewnet Minale
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引用次数: 0

摘要

城市土地利用动态建模对于城市专家和基础设施管理者的规划至关重要。本研究试图利用1984年至2020年的卫星图像探索贡达尔的土地利用/土地覆盖(LULC)动态。马尔可夫链和元胞自动机(MC-CA)模型在预测城市土地利用变化方面表现良好。然而,只有少数模型在埃塞俄比亚普遍有效,贡达尔的研究也没有将这种方法应用于研究城市土地利用模式。因此,使用IDRISI中的MC-CA模型预测了贡达尔的土地利用/土地覆盖变化。贡达尔市的建成区面积在1984年达到1 413公顷(占总面积的3%),1994年增加到2 380公顷(5%);2004年为21153公顷(45.5%);2014年为22622公顷(48.7%);2020年为23427公顷(50.5%)。据预测,该地区在2050年代将达到57.5%,增长速度更快,将导致大量农田流失。这将增加城市扩张的挑战,以及前十年的整体环境失衡。因此,城市规划中需要创新和谨慎的结构和系统,以确保可持续的城市未来,并使我们的城市在可持续城市的模式中宜居和具有竞争力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modeling urban land use dynamics using Markov-chain and cellular automata in Gondar City, Northwest Ethiopia

Modeling urban land-use dynamics is critical for urban experts’ and infrastructure managers’ planning. This study attempts to explore the land-use/land-cover (LULC) dynamics of Gondar using satellite images from 1984 to 2020. Markov-Chain and Cellular Automata (MC-CA) models have been recognized as performing well in predicting urban land-use change. However, only a few models work in Ethiopia in general, and no study in Gondar has applied this approach to study urban land-use patterns. Therefore, Gondar land-use/land-cover changes of Gondar were predicted using the MC-CA model in IDRISI. The built-up area in Gondar city covered 1 413 ha (3% of the total area) in 1984 and increased to 2 380 ha (5%) in 1994; 21 153 ha (45.5%) in 2004; 22 622 ha (48.7%) in 2014; and 23 427 ha (50.5%) in 2020. The area has been predicted to reach 57.5% in the 2050s, showing a faster increase that will cause a very vast loss of farmland. This will increase urban sprawl challenges as well as overall environmental disequilibrium in the preceding decade. Thus, innovative and careful structures and systems in urban planning are required to secure a sustainable urban future and to make our cities livable and competitive in the paradigm of sustainable cities.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.30
自引率
1.10%
发文量
791
审稿时长
79 days
期刊介绍: The Chinese Journal of Population, Resources and Environment (CJPRE) is a peer-reviewed international academic journal that publishes original research in the fields of economic, population, resource, and environment studies as they relate to sustainable development. The journal aims to address and evaluate theoretical frameworks, capability building initiatives, strategic goals, ethical values, empirical research, methodologies, and techniques in the field. CJPRE began publication in 1992 and is sponsored by the Chinese Society for Sustainable Development (CSSD), the Research Center for Sustainable Development of Shandong Province, the Administrative Center for China's Agenda 21 (ACCA21), and Shandong Normal University. The Chinese title of the journal was inscribed by the former Chinese leader, Mr. Deng Xiaoping. Initially focused on China's advances in sustainable development, CJPRE now also highlights global developments from both developed and developing countries.
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