高危人群中HIV/AIDS传播动态的数学分析

IF 1.3 4区数学 Q3 BIOLOGY

Journal of Biological Systems Pub Date : 2023-01-19 DOI:10.1142/s0218339023500018

Ashrafi M. Niger, C. Podder

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引用次数: 0

摘要

设计了一个评估艾滋病毒/艾滋病传播风险关键人群影响的模型。只要相关繁殖数小于1，该模型就具有全局渐近稳定（GAS）无病平衡。当繁殖数量超过1时，如果在易感类别中没有来回运动，它就具有独特的GAS地方性平衡。研究表明，如果高风险感染者放弃他们的危险行为，那么疾病负担就会减轻。此外，如果低风险感染者不采取危险行为，那么疾病的传播就会减少。使用模型的所有感染相关类别和基本繁殖数来评估部分秩相关系数（PRCC）指数。不确定性和敏感性分析结果表明，控制艾滋病阶段的有效接触率、疾病致死率有助于控制疾病的传播。

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MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF HIV/AIDS IN RISK STRUCTURED POPULATION

A model for assessing the impact of key population at risk in spreading HIV/AIDS is designed. The model is shown to have a globally asymptotically stable (GAS) disease-free equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. It has a unique GAS endemic equilibrium whenever reproduction number exceeds unity, if there is no back and forth movement in susceptible classes. It is shown that if infected individuals with high risk abandon their risky behavioral practices, then the disease burden will reduce. Furthermore, if infected individuals with low risk do not adopt risky behaviors then the transmission of the disease will decrease. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) indices are assessed using all the infection-related classes and basic reproduction number of the model. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results show that controlling the effective contact rate, disease-induced death rate in AIDS stage with low and high risk classes will help controlling the transmission of the disease.

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来源期刊

Journal of Biological Systems 生物-生物学

CiteScore

2.80

自引率

12.50%

发文量

审稿时长

1 months

期刊介绍： The Journal of Biological Systems is published quarterly. The goal of the Journal is to promote interdisciplinary approaches in Biology and in Medicine, and the study of biological situations with a variety of tools, including mathematical and general systems methods. The Journal solicits original research papers and survey articles in areas that include (but are not limited to): Complex systems studies; isomorphies; nonlinear dynamics; entropy; mathematical tools and systems theories with applications in Biology and Medicine. Interdisciplinary approaches in Biology and Medicine; transfer of methods from one discipline to another; integration of biological levels, from atomic to molecular, macromolecular, cellular, and organic levels; animal biology; plant biology. Environmental studies; relationships between individuals, populations, communities and ecosystems; bioeconomics, management of renewable resources; hierarchy theory; integration of spatial and time scales. Evolutionary biology; co-evolutions; genetics and evolution; branching processes and phyllotaxis. Medical systems; physiology; cardiac modeling; computer models in Medicine; cancer research; epidemiology. Numerical simulations and computations; numerical study and analysis of biological data. Epistemology; history of science. The journal will also publish book reviews.