{"title":"央行沟通是否有助于稳定通胀预期?","authors":"Alexander Jung, P. Kuehl","doi":"10.1111/SJPE.12276","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines whether central bank communication stabilises euro area inflation expectations through the information and news channel. A novelty of the study is its use of data from Google Analytics on ECB website traffic as proxy for visitors’ attention to its communication. We conduct several econometric tests with daily data to measure the impact of ECB communication on the information demand of the public and ultimately on inflation expectations. Overall, this study shows that website attention, as captured by search volumes of visitors, influences euro area inflation expectations. We find that increased website attention contributes to narrowing the gap between market-based forecasts and (the mean of) longer-term professional inflation expectations. Our findings add to the theoretical evidence on the existence of an information and news channel. JEL Codes : C20","PeriodicalId":47171,"journal":{"name":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9000,"publicationDate":"2021-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/SJPE.12276","citationCount":"4","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Can central bank communication help to stabilise inflation expectations?\",\"authors\":\"Alexander Jung, P. Kuehl\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/SJPE.12276\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This paper examines whether central bank communication stabilises euro area inflation expectations through the information and news channel. A novelty of the study is its use of data from Google Analytics on ECB website traffic as proxy for visitors’ attention to its communication. We conduct several econometric tests with daily data to measure the impact of ECB communication on the information demand of the public and ultimately on inflation expectations. Overall, this study shows that website attention, as captured by search volumes of visitors, influences euro area inflation expectations. We find that increased website attention contributes to narrowing the gap between market-based forecasts and (the mean of) longer-term professional inflation expectations. Our findings add to the theoretical evidence on the existence of an information and news channel. JEL Codes : C20\",\"PeriodicalId\":47171,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Scottish Journal of Political Economy\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-02-22\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/SJPE.12276\",\"citationCount\":\"4\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Scottish Journal of Political Economy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1111/SJPE.12276\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/SJPE.12276","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Can central bank communication help to stabilise inflation expectations?
This paper examines whether central bank communication stabilises euro area inflation expectations through the information and news channel. A novelty of the study is its use of data from Google Analytics on ECB website traffic as proxy for visitors’ attention to its communication. We conduct several econometric tests with daily data to measure the impact of ECB communication on the information demand of the public and ultimately on inflation expectations. Overall, this study shows that website attention, as captured by search volumes of visitors, influences euro area inflation expectations. We find that increased website attention contributes to narrowing the gap between market-based forecasts and (the mean of) longer-term professional inflation expectations. Our findings add to the theoretical evidence on the existence of an information and news channel. JEL Codes : C20
期刊介绍:
The Scottish Journal of Political Economy is a generalist journal with an explicitly international reach in both readership and authorship. It is dedicated to publishing the highest quality research in any field of economics, without prejudice to the methodology or to the analytical techniques used. The editors encourage submissions in all fields of economics in order to provide practical contributions to the literature, and to further the influence of economics in the world of practical affairs.