Strategic Responses to Chinese Election Interference in Taiwan's Presidential Elections

Abstract:Scholars have found that election interference by a foreign power can increase political partisanship in a targeted state and can be an effective tool for throwing weight behind a candidate. We know less about how domestic political actors respond to election interference and how this affects the intervener's strategies over time. Since Taiwan held its first direct presidential election in 1996, China has used numerous tactics to influence Taiwan's elections. Taiwan's political parties have adapted to China's interference, with targeted candidates campaigning on election interference, and non-targeted candidates seeking to play a mediating role with Beijing. In response, China's tactics have shifted: the broad threats of earlier elections have been replaced with narrowly targeted efforts to mobilize Beijing-friendly segments of Taiwan's population.