基于三个来源的二胎估计总数：2018年中国四川成都市的情况

IF 1.4 3区社会学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY

Mathematical Population Studies Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI:10.1080/08898480.2021.1915638

Li Qi, Min Hu, Lujie Chi, Jinpen Liao

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引用次数: 2

摘要

摘要由于重复、遗漏和计数错误，登记的二胎总数可能被低估。三源估计器提供了更精确的值。它是基于户籍名单、抽样调查名单和医院出生名单。它避免了基于抽样调查和户籍或住院分娩的估计量固有的相关性偏差。它的表达方式适用于对二胎总数的估计。以成都为例，它允许估计二胎总人数为99633人，这大大高于仅通过统计登记获得的96105人的报告数字。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Estimated total number of second children based on three sources: the case of the city of Chengdu, Sichuan, China, for the year 2018

ABSTRACT The total number of registered second children may be underestimated due to repetitions, omissions, and counting errors. The three-source estimator provides a more accurate value. It is based on the household registration list, a sample survey list, and the hospital birth list. It avoids the correlation bias inherent in the estimator based on a sample survey and household registration or hospital births. Its expression is adapted to the estimation of the total number of second children. In the case of Chengdu, it allows for estimating the total number of second children at 99,633, which is substantially higher than the reported number of 96,105 obtained by counting registrations alone.

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来源期刊

Mathematical Population Studies 数学-数学跨学科应用

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

11.10%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Mathematical Population Studies publishes carefully selected research papers in the mathematical and statistical study of populations. The journal is strongly interdisciplinary and invites contributions by mathematicians, demographers, (bio)statisticians, sociologists, economists, biologists, epidemiologists, actuaries, geographers, and others who are interested in the mathematical formulation of population-related questions. The scope covers both theoretical and empirical work. Manuscripts should be sent to Manuscript central for review. The editor-in-chief has final say on the suitability for publication.