China and the Middle East: A Global Strategy Where the Middle East has a Significant but Limited Place

Abstract China’s growing importance in the global order, and the increasing assertiveness with which it pursues its global objectives, raise questions as to how the Middle East fits within China’s global strategy. There has been much speculation, in particular, as to whether China is seeking to replace the United States as a key guarantor of security for some Middle Eastern states and regimes. This no doubt is partly dependent on whether the United States will draw back its commitment to the region, and whether Middle Eastern states will seek an alternative guarantor. But it also depends critically on whether China has any interest in playing, and capacity to play, such a role. An understanding of the dynamics of China’s global strategy, and of how the Middle East relates to the parameters around which the strategy is conceived, needs to be the starting point in such an assessment. The aim of this article is to provide a realistic appraisal of the strategy, and then to draw conclusions relative to the present and future role of China in the Middle Eastern region. The analysis concludes that the relationship with Middle Eastern countries is indeed significant to China, but is nonetheless secondary to the interests which are most critical for the Chinese state.