The Moderating Effect of COVID-19 on the Relationship between Spot Market Prices and Capital Investment in the Motor-Carrier Sector

Abstract:Capital investment by motor carriers in new trucks and trailers is essential for the effective and efficient operation of supply chains. Strong evidence exists that motor carriers’ capital investment is positively correlated with truckload spot prices. This article explores whether the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic moderated the relationship between spot prices and capital investment by motor carriers. We theorize that the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic muted the relationship between spot prices and investment in trucks to a greater degree than it muted the relationship between spot prices and investment in trailers. We attribute this to the COVID-19 pandemic creating tremendous uncertainty about the availability of truck drivers, which made investing in trucks less attractive than investing in trailers that do not require additional labor. To test our theory, we assemble a time series dataset that combines proprietary and public data from several sources. Econometric estimates corroborate our predictions and are robust to instrumental variable estimation to assuage concerns about endogeneity of spot prices. We explain the implications of our findings for theory and practice.