A framework approach to address the trend and causes of flood stage change in a river reach downstream of a dam influenced by tributaries

The evaluation of the trend of flood stage changes in alluvial rivers downstream of dams is important for flood management. However, the flood stage associated with a given discharge generally is nonstationary in river reaches with multiple tributaries. This is not only because of the dam-induced shifting in the cross-sectional area and/or channel roughness but also because of the backwater induced by high flows from the tributaries. To determine the total trend of the flood stage and quantify the separate contributions of hydrological and geomorphic effects, the current study proposed a framework approach consisting of hydrological analysis and multiscenario numerical modeling. By this means, the trend in the flood stage could be distinguished from the stage oscillation driven by varying factors, including extreme hydrologic events. The effects of chronic changes, including channel incision and flow resistance increase, also were quantitatively separated. This framework was applied to the Chenglingji–Datong (CD) reach downstream of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) in the Yangtze River, China. The results indicated that the effect of the roughness increase counterbalanced the effect of channel incision when the flow discharge was beyond the bankfull level. The backwater effect induced by tributary inflow was the major cause of the flood stage rise in recent years. The method presented in the current study provides a useful tool for managers and engineers to obtain better insight into the driving mechanisms of flood stage changes in river reaches that are downstream of dams. These findings indicate that the flood stage may not decline or may even occasionally increase, although the cross-sectional area was enlarged by channel incision. Special attention should be given to the flood risk situation in the study reach after the TGD began operation.