土耳其与欧盟国家林产品贸易的重力模型分析

IF 0.7 4区农林科学 Q4 MATERIALS SCIENCE, PAPER & WOOD

Drvna Industrija Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI:10.5552/drvind.2023.0057

Henry Eric Magezi, T. Okan

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引用次数: 0

摘要

该研究旨在了解土耳其与欧盟（EU）国家在森林产品部门贸易的决定因素，并评估土耳其对欧盟的森林产品出口潜力。研究期间为2005年至2020年，重点关注HS44、HS47和HS48森林产品组。使用面板数据，采用普通最小二乘法、随机效应法和Hausman-Taylor估计法对重力模型进行了估计。结果表明，土耳其对欧盟的森林产品出口受到国内生产总值、土耳其人口和欧盟伙伴的显著影响，并受到相对森林禀赋的负面影响。然后利用估计的弹性来预测土耳其在森林产品贸易中的出口潜力。调查结果显示，2005年至2020年，预测的森林出口价值超过了土耳其对丹麦、法国、意大利、卢森堡、波兰、斯洛文尼亚和西班牙的实际森林产品出口。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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A Gravity Model Analysis of Forest Products Trade Between Turkey and European Union Countries

The study aimed to understand the determining factors of the trade between Turkey and the European Union (EU) countries in the forest products sector and assess Turkey’s forest product export potential to the EU. The study period was from 2005 to 2020 and focused on HS44, HS47, and HS48 forest product groups. A gravity model was estimated using panel data with the Ordinary Least Squares, Random Effects, and Hausman-Taylor estimation methods. Results indicate that the forest products exports from Turkey to the EU are significantly influenced by the Gross Domestic Product, the population of Turkey and the EU partner, and negatively by the relative forest endowment. The elasticities estimated were then used to predict the export potential of Turkey in the trade of forest products. The findings revealed that the predicted forest export value exceeded Turkey’s actual forest products export to Denmark, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Poland, Slovenia and Spain from 2005 to 2020.

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来源期刊

Drvna Industrija MATERIALS SCIENCE, PAPER & WOOD-

CiteScore

1.80

自引率

9.10%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： "Drvna industrija" ("Wood Industry") journal publishes original scientific and review papers, short notes, professional papers, conference papers, reports, professional information, bibliographical and survey articles and general notes relating to the forestry exploitation, biology, chemistry, physics and technology of wood, pulp and paper and wood components, including production, management and marketing aspects in the woodworking industry.