气候变化情景中的不确定性评估：森林生态系统服务管理的方法建议

Annals of Silvicultural Research Pub Date : 2019-06-28 DOI:10.12899/ASR-1802

S. Sacchelli, Jacopo Bernetti, Augusto Marinelli

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引用次数: 0

摘要

这项工作介绍了一种量化气候变化对森林文化生态系统服务的潜在影响的方法。针对气候变化带来的不确定性和森林专家的主观意见，采用了犹豫模糊语言术语集技术。在不同的时间范围内调查了两种森林管理情景(目前的做法以及以气候变化为导向的造林)。结果突出表明，随着时间的延长，气候变化影响评估的不确定性越来越大。从空间和经济角度量化了与当前文化生态系统服务提供相关的潜在损失。该方法在意大利中部托斯卡纳地区进行了实例验证。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Uncertainty assessment in climate change scenarios: a methodological proposal for management of forest ecosystem services

The work introduces a method to quantify potential impact of climate change on cultural ecosystem services in forests. The technique of Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Term Set is applied to face with the uncertainty due to climate change as well as subjective opinion of forest experts. Two forest management scenario (current practices as well as climate change-oriented silviculture) are investigated for different time horizons. Results highlight the increasing uncertainty on climate change impact evaluation related to longer time horizons. Potential losses connected to current cultural ecosystem services provision are quantified from spatial as well as economic viewpoint. The method is tested for an illustrative example in the Tuscany region - central Italy.

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来源期刊

Annals of Silvicultural Research Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Forestry

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量