乌克兰与世界的就业现状与展望

S. S. Gerasymenko, V. V. Нerasymenko
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摘要

本文着重分析了世界和一些国家的就业趋势、就业模式和决定因素、有效人口就业问题以及防止大规模失业等问题。高失业率和大规模贫困、职位空缺数量少以及每个职位空缺有大量失业者,这些都是国内和区域劳动力市场的明显负面特征。一个特别重要的问题是,失业问题在几乎所有阶层的人口中都出现了大规模增长,使他们的福利和生活水平恶化,成为一个全球性的问题。在整个经济思想史上,失业问题的分析和解决一直引起经济学研究者越来越多的关注。依靠全面就业机制寻找消除这一现象的杠杆和工具一直是所有经济理论的核心。对以失业的本质和问题为重点的科学发展的回顾表明,解决与失业现象相关的问题的方法多种多样。有鉴于此,劳动力市场的评估、建模和预测在社会经济研究中处于领先地位。文章证实了在经济模式及其结构变化、创业的技术和组织水平、生产资料和劳动力结构之间的平衡等因素的影响下,评估和分析失业水平和动态作为劳动力市场的重要组成部分的可行性,企业管理体系的整体绩效。对选定国家保护失业人员的社会方案的内容进行了分析性审查和比较。本文在实际国内生产总值和通货膨胀动态数据的基础上讨论了评估和确定因素对失业水平变化的影响模式的问题,这些数据用于对国民经济当前表现的综合评估。鉴于价格稳定、国际收支平衡和结构转型对全体人口及其群体的就业和收入的影响,建议未来制定这些政策的基础,其结果应该是改善劳动力市场结构,特别是降低失业率。下一阶段的研究将确定这些措施对国民经济的影响程度和方向。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Employment in Ukraine and the World: The Condition and Prospects
The article is devoted to analysis of tendencies in the employment, its patterns and determining factors in the world and selected countries, problems of the effective population’s employment and prevention of the massive unemployment. The high level of unemployment and large scales of the poverty, small numbers of job vacancies along with large numbers of unemployed per job vacancy are explicit negative features of the domestic and regional labor markets. A problem of special importance is the unemployment that has gained large scales in nearly all the strata of the population, worsened their welfare and life standards, to become a problem of global dimension.    Analysis and solutions of unemployment problems have always drawn the increased attention of researchers in economics throughout the history of economic thought. The search for levers and tools allowing for eliminating this phenomenon with reliance on the total employment mechanism has been central to all the economic theories. A review of scientific developments focused on the essence and problems of unemployment shows the variety of approaches to the solution of problems associated with this phenomenon. In view of the above, assessment, modelling and forecasting of the labor market has a leading position in socio-economic studies. The article contains the author’s substantiation of the feasibility of assessment and analysis of the level and dynamics of unemployment as an important component of the labor market under the impact of factors such as the economic mode and its structural change, the technical and organizational level of entrepreneurship, the balance between the structure of production means and workforce, the overall performance of business management system. An analytical review and comparison of the contents of social programs for protection of unemployed in selected countries is made. The problem of assessment and determining the patterns of factor impact on the variations of unemployment level is addressed in the article on the basis of data on the dynamics of real gross domestic product and inflation, used for the aggregated assessment of the current performance of a national economy. It is recommended that the foundations of the policy on stabilization of prices, payment balance and structural transformations be developed in the future, given their impact on the employment and the income of the whole population and their groups, which consequence is supposed to be improvement of the labor market structure, unemployment reduction in particular. Determining the degree and vector of these measures’ impact on a national economy will be the next phase of the study.
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