Can global aquaculture growth help to conserve wild fish stocks? Theory and empirical analysis

Can fed aquaculture growth alleviate overfishing and foster the conservation of wild fish stocks? To examine this question we present a stylized fishery model of trade in edible fish and fishmeal that incorporates both market linkages and biological (predator–prey) linkages between the aquaculture sector and capture fisheries. We study the effects of local aquaculture growth, as induced by an increase in aquaculture feed‐efficiency (technology shock), and of external or global aquaculture growth as experienced by either a drop in the price of edible fish or as an increase in the price of fishmeal (price shocks). While domestic (or “local”) aquaculture growth increases wild fish stocks due to positive market interactions, the effects of external (or “global”) aquaculture growth are generally ambiguous and depend on the strength of biological linkages. A stylized empirical application of the cod (predator) and capelin (prey) fisheries in the Barents Sea illustrates that the biological linkages between cod and capelin reduce the positive impact of aquaculture on cod conservation roughly by 50%.