Spatial heterogeneity in rain-bearing winds, seasonality and rainfall variability in southern Africa's winter rainfall zone

Abstract. A renewed focus on southern Africa's winter rainfall zone (WRZ) following the Day Zero drought and water crisis has not shed much light on the spatial patterns of its rainfall variability and climatological seasonality. However, such understanding remains essential in studying past and potential future climate changes. Using a dense station network covering the region encompassing the WRZ, we study spatial heterogeneity in rainfall seasonality and temporal variability. These spatial patterns are compared to those of rainfall occurring under each ERA5 synoptic-scale wind direction sector. A well-defined “true” WRZ is identified with strong spatial coherence between temporal variability and seasonality not previously reported. The true WRZ is composed of a core and periphery beyond which lies a transition zone to the surrounding year-round rainfall zone (YRZ) and late summer rainfall zone. In places, this transition is highly complex, including where the YRZ extends much further westward along the southern mountains than has previously been reported. The core receives around 80 % of its rainfall with westerly or north-westerly flow compared to only 30 % in the south-western YRZ incursion, where below-average rainfall occurs on days with (usually pre-frontal) north-westerly winds. This spatial pattern corresponds closely to those of rainfall seasonality and temporal variability. Rainfall time series of the core and surroundings are very weakly correlated (R2<0.1), also in the winter half-year, implying that the YRZ is not simply the superposition of summer and winter rainfall zones. In addition to rain-bearing winds, latitude and annual rain day climatology appear to influence the spatial structure of rainfall variability but have little effect on seasonality. Mean annual rainfall in the true WRZ exhibits little association with the identified patterns of seasonality and rainfall variability despite the driest core WRZ stations being an order of magnitude drier than the wettest stations. This is consistent with the general pattern of near homogeneity within the true WRZ, in contrast to steep and complex spatial change outside it.