Study on the Potential of China’s Fruit and Vegetable Products Export to the RCEP Partners

China is one of the world’s major exporters of fruit and vegetable products, and the expansion of fruit and vegetable exports is important for increasing agricultural income. Based on time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model and trade inefficiency model, this paper empirically analyzes the influencing factors and trade efficiency of China’s fruit and vegetable products export to RCEP partners from 2001 to 2019. The results show that China’s GDP per capita, the population of importing countries, and common language conditions have positive effects on China’s fruit and vegetable products export to RCEP partners. GDP per capita of importing countries, the population of China, and geographical distance between trading parties hinder trade in fruit and vegetable products. The presence of trade inefficiencies constrains China’s fruit and vegetable products export to RCEP partners, with liner shipping connectivity and trade freedom having a positive relationship with export efficiency of fruit and vegetable products. Variable trade costs and fixed trade costs have a negative relationship with export efficiency of fruit and vegetable products, which hinder trade in fruit and vegetable products,while financial freedom and free trade agreements have no significant impact on export efficiency of fruit and vegetable products. results based on the stochastic frontier gravity model illustrate that China’s GDP per capita, the population size of the importing country, and the common language condition have a facilitating effect on China’s fruit and vegetable products export to the RCEP partners. The GDP per capita of the importing country, the size of China’s population, and the geographical distance between the two trading parties are detrimental to trade in fruit and vegetable products. The empirical results based on the trade inefficiency model show that liner shipping connectivity, trade freedom, and export efficiency of fruit and vegetable products are positively correlated and all promote trade in fruit and vegetable products. Variable trade costs and fixed trade costs are negatively correlated with export efficiency of fruit and vegetable products, which hinder trade in fruit and vegetable products. Financial freedom has no significant effect on export efficiency. According to the results of the trade efficiency and trade potential measurements, China’s fruit and vegetable products export to the RCEP partners have greater development prospects, with great potential for exports to Indonesia and the Philippines.