处于十字路口的房地产市场经济适用房时代已经过去

IF 3 Q1 ECONOMICS
K. Čermáková, E. Hromada, Ondřej Bednář, T. Pavelka
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引用次数: 1

摘要

在对房地产价格形成和房地产市场具体情况的广泛讨论中,本文旨在调查房地产价格趋势与住房市场交易数量之间的关系。具体来说,我们测试了住房交易量和租金是否是房价的良好预测因素,并讨论了这种关系在房地产销售和租赁市场上的因果关系和差异。我们从选定的欧洲房地产市场获得了房地产价格趋势与该市场交易数量之间关系的证据。我们认为,交易数量的增加预示着房地产价格的上涨,但价格往往是刚性的(向下)方向。因此,房地产需求的降温可能会减少交易数量,而不是压低房地产价格。这一吸引人的结果可能会让我们理解为什么房地产价格会随着时间和国家的推移而上涨。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
REAL ESTATE MARKET AT A CROSSROAD - ERA OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING IS GONE
Within a broad discussion on property price formation and property market specifics this paper aims to investigate the relationship between property price trends and number of transactions occurred on housing market. Specifically, we test if housing transaction volumes and rents are good predictors of housing prices and discuss causalities and differences in this relationship on the sales and rental property markets. We bring evidence from selected European property markets about the relationship between property price trend and number of transactions occurring on this market. We argue that increased number of transactions is predictive of increase in property price, but prices tend to be rigid in the opposite (downward) direction. Thus, cooling down of demand for properties may rather decrease number of transactions than push down property prices. This appealing result may bring light into understanding why property prices appreciate across time and countries.
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