新冠肺炎对生活水平的影响：用扫描数据和未知的经济行为应对当前前所未有的宏观经济冲击的挑战

Q3 Social Sciences

International Journal of Microsimulation Pub Date : 2023-04-30 DOI:10.34196/ijm.00273

N. Lustig, V. M. Pabon, F. Sanz, S. Younger

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引用次数: 1

摘要

我们提出了一种信息要求相对较低的方法论方法，以量化新冠肺炎疫情等前所未有的大规模宏观经济冲击对整个收入分配的生活水平的影响。这种方法可以快速制定，与其他“快速交付”做法相反，它并不假设收入损失在整个收入分配中是成比例的，这一特征对于理解对贫困和不平等的影响至关重要。我们的方法足够灵活，可以在获得更多信息时细化冲击的预测效果。我们用拉丁美洲四个最大国家的数据进行了说明：阿根廷、巴西、哥伦比亚和墨西哥，并讨论了新冠肺炎对不平等和贫困的估计影响。我们还提出了使我们的框架适应不同国家和经济冲击的指导方针©2023，Lustig等人

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The Impact of COVID-19 on Living Standards: Addressing the Challenges of Nowcasting Unprecedented Macroeconomic Shocks with Scant Data and Uncharted Economic Behavior

We present a methodological approach with relatively low information requirements to quantify the impact of large, unprecedented macroeconomic shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic on living standards across the income distribution. The approach can be produced quickly and, contrary to other "fast-delivery" exercises, does not assume that income losses are proportional across the income distribution, a feature that is critical to understanding the impact on poverty and inequality. Our method is sufficiently flexible to refine the projected effects of the shock as more information becomes available. We illustrate with data from the four largest countries in Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico, and discuss the estimated effect of COVID-19 on inequality and poverty. We also present the guidelines for adapting our framework to different countries and economic shocks © 2023, Lustig et al

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来源期刊

International Journal of Microsimulation Mathematics-Modeling and Simulation

CiteScore

0.80

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The IJM covers research in all aspects of microsimulation modelling. It publishes high quality contributions making use of microsimulation models to address specific research questions in all scientific areas, as well as methodological and technical issues. IJM concern: the description, validation, benchmarking and replication of microsimulation models; results coming from microsimulation models, in particular policy evaluation and counterfactual analysis; technical or methodological aspect of microsimulation modelling; reviews of models and results, as well as of technical or methodological issues.