毒品走私缉获：报告一致性和质量对观察到的跨国结构的影响

IF 1.2 4区社会学 Q4 SUBSTANCE ABUSE

Journal of Drug Issues Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.1177/00220426221107550

Gisela Bichler, Ivette Jimenez

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引用次数: 1

摘要

如果有可能克服重大的数据挑战，社交网络分析可以用来揭示跨国毒品走私活动的结构性脆弱性，为旨在破坏转运的犯罪控制工作提供明确的目标。本研究利用联合国毒品和犯罪问题办公室(UNODC)事件级缉获数据(2010-2016年)，探讨了数据纳入决策可能在多大程度上扭曲国家间走私网络的新兴结构。双变量指数随机图模型(ERGM)表明，放宽数据包含标准暴露了非法的反向通道(互惠性)，并比其他情况下未被发现的更全面地了解了主要转运活动(活动和流行传播)。如果遵循使用规则，宽松的数据包含标准可能有助于调整与检测罕见事件和不一致的报告实践相关的数据限制。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Drug Smuggling Seizures: The Effects of Reporting Consistency and Quality on the Observed Transnational Structure

If it is possible to overcome significant data challenges, social network analytics could be used to expose structural vulnerabilities in transnational drug smuggling operations, offering clear targets for crime control efforts that aim to disrupt transhipment. This study explores the extent to which data inclusion decisions might distort the emergent structure of nation-to-nation smuggling networks mapped with aggregate intelligence using United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) incident level seizure data (2010–2016). Bivariate exponential random graph models (ERGM) show that relaxing data inclusion standards exposes illicit backchannels (reciprocity) and a more complete picture of major transhipment activity (activity and popularity spread) than would be otherwise undetected. Relaxed data inclusion standards may help to adjust for the data limitations associated with the detection of rare events and inconsistent reporting practices, if usage rules are followed.

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来源期刊

Journal of Drug Issues SUBSTANCE ABUSE-

CiteScore

3.00

自引率

11.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Drug Issues (JDI) was incorporated as a nonprofit entity in the State of Florida in 1971. In 1996, JDI was transferred to the Florida State University College of Criminology and Criminal Justice, and the Richard L. Rachin Endowment was established to support its continued publication. Since its inception, JDI has been dedicated to providing a professional and scholarly forum centered on the national and international problems associated with drugs, especially illicit drugs. It is a refereed publication with international contributors and subscribers. As a leader in its field, JDI is an instrument widely used by research scholars, public policy analysts, and those involved in the day-to-day struggle against the problem of drug abuse.