政变后谁投票？埃及的理论和证据

IF 1.3 3区社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES

Mediterranean Politics Pub Date : 2022-02-12 DOI:10.1080/13629395.2022.2033512

Elizabeth R. Nugent, S. Brooke

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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要通过军事政变上台的领导人中，有一半以上通过选举使其政权合法化，但在公民接受或拒绝这一过程的方式上，国家以下各级存在着广泛的差异。在本文中，我们研究了2013年7月军事政变后几个月埃及总统选举中的逐区投票模式，以确定公民参与选举过程的三个区级指标的生态相关性：选民投票率、有效（未损坏）选票和为政权附属候选人投下的选票。控制政变前自由公正的总统选举的这些结果的基线指标，我们发现党派之争的持久影响得到了支持：在政变前的选举中，对被罢免的候选人支持率较高的地区，在政变后的选举中投票率和有效投票率系统性地较低。

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Who votes after a coup? Theory and evidence from Egypt

ABSTRACT More than half of leaders who come to power through military coups hold elections to legitimate their regimes, yet there is extensive subnational variation in how citizens accept or reject this process. In this paper, we examine district-by-district voting patterns in Egyptian presidential elections a few months following the July 2013 military coup to identify the ecological correlates of three district-level measures of citizen engagement with the electoral process: voter turnout, valid (non-spoilt) ballots, and votes cast for the regime-affiliated candidate. Controlling for baseline measures of these outcomes from the free and fair presidential elections prior to the coup, we find support for the enduring effect of partisanship: districts with higher support for the deposed candidate in pre-coup elections featured systematically lower turnout and rates of valid voting in post-coup elections.

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来源期刊

Mediterranean Politics Multiple-

CiteScore

4.40

自引率

5.90%

发文量

期刊介绍： Mediterranean Politics is the only refereed academic journal to focus on the politics, international relations and political economy of the entire Mediterranean area - "Mediterranean" here being understood to refer to all those countries whose borders are defined partially or wholly by the Mediterranean Sea. This focus involves consideration not only of the region itself, but also the significance of developments there for other parts of the world. The journal analyses the central issues that concern Mediterranean countries and assesses both local and international responses to them. While its prime concern is with political developments, the focus of Mediterranean Politics extends to all the factors and dimensions affecting political life.