气候变化对褐鳟分布的影响，Salmo trutta Linnaeus，1758（Teleostei：三文鱼科），在伊朗使用集合建模方法

Iranian Journal of Ichthyology Pub Date : 2019-03-31 DOI:10.22034/IJI.V6I1.388

H. Mostafavi, J. Kambouzia

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引用次数: 5

摘要

近几十年来，气候变化和其他人为压力严重影响了淡水生物多样性，使其下降速度快于陆地生物多样性。这一趋势很可能在未来继续下去。利用物种分布模型(SDMs)工具和集合预测方法，模拟了2050年和2080年乐观和悲观气候变化情景(RCP 2.6和RCP 8.5)下伊朗褐鳟的分布状况，评估了气候变化对伊朗褐鳟分布的影响。结果表明，在所有乐观和悲观的气候变化情景下，该物种在我们数据库中的分布范围都显著减少(100%)。此外，在这些情况下，没有预测新的潜在地点。这些结果严重警告我们，未来需要一个保护和管理计划来保护这个物种。

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Impact of climate change on the distribution of brown trout, Salmo trutta Linnaeus, 1758 (Teleostei: Salmonidae) using ensemble modelling approach in Iran

In recent decades, climate change and other anthropogenic pressures have seriously influenced freshwater biodiversity to decline faster than terrestrial biodiversity. This trend is likely to be continued in the future. We assessed the impact of climate change on the distribution of brown trout in Iran by simulating their conditions under optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) in 2050 and 2080 by using species distribution models (SDMs) tool and ensemble forecasting approach. The results showed a significant reduction in the distribution range of this species (100%) in our database in all optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenarios. Moreover, no new potential sites were predicted in those scenarios. These outcomes seriously warn that a conservation and management plans are required to protect this species in future.

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来源期刊

Iranian Journal of Ichthyology Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Aquatic Science

CiteScore

0.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Iranian Journal of Ichthyology (IJI) is a peer-reviewed journal for publication of high quality papers on any aspect of ichthyology and will be published 4 times a year by the Iranian Society of Ichthyology (http://www.isi-org.ir). The journal welcomes the submission of manuscripts that meets the general criteria of significance and scientific excellence, and will publish original scientific articles in the fields of ichthyology. The editors welcome the submission of original manuscripts including Research Articles, Short communications, and Views & News. Review papers by distinguished authors and Special Issues will also be considered. It is our aim to provide the international scientific community with an efficiently published journal, meeting high scientific and technical standards. Scopes of Iranian Journal of Ichthyology includes: Systematics, taxonomy, morphology, anatomy, biogeography, biodiversity, conservation, ecology and general biology of fishes (reproduction, food and feeding habits, age and growth, population dynamics, etc.). Papers on freshwater, brackish, marine and fossil fishes will be considered.