复合灾害下的洪水风险分析与制图:印度Alappuzha热带沿海地区的copula方法

IF 2.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL
Sneha Binoy , J.P. Jyoma , S. Adarsh , A. Muhammed Siddik , Vahid Nourani , A. Alisha , T. Sreeshma
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本研究使用Copulas调查了印度喀拉拉邦南部沿海地区Alappuzha在强降雨和水位上升共存情况下的复合风险确定。在Alappuzha的情况下,当降雨和水位上升的共同作用发生时,维姆巴纳德湖及其周围和下库塔纳德地区发生复合洪水的可能性更大。因此,考虑Punnmada、Cherthala和Arookutty三个不同地点的水位和降雨量进行复合洪水风险分析。使用基于Copula的联合概率模型来确定洪水的综合风险。首先,为每个位置开发日降雨量和水位数据的边际分布,并使用最佳拟合分布来寻找联合概率。使用三种最常见的阿基米德交配器Gumbel–Hougaard(GH)、Clayton和Frank来寻找降雨量和水位的联合概率,并确定了每个位置的最佳交配器。随后,在风险建模中,还获得了降雨和水位的联合重现期和条件重现期。通过在地理信息系统(GIS)平台中使用数字高程模型(DEM),针对联合重现期水位组合的特定情况,计算并用图形表示洪水易发区。这有助于行政人员或政策制定者有效地执行Alappuzha的灾害管理。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Flood risk analysis and mapping under compound hazards: A copula approach for tropical coastal district of Alappuzha, India

This study investigates the determination of compound risk under the co-existence of heavy rainfall and water level rise at Alappuzha, a coastal district in Southern Kerala, India using Copulas. In the case of Alappuzha, when the combined action of rainfall and water level rise occurs, the chances of compound flooding is more in and around Vembanad Lake and lower Kuttanad regions. So, the water level and rainfall of three different locations viz. Punnmada, Cherthala, Arookutty are considered for compound flood risk analysis. A joint probability model based on Copula is used to determine the combined risk of flooding. First the marginal distributions of daily rainfall and water level data are developed for each locations and the best fit distribution is used for finding the joint probability. The three most common Archimedean copulas Gumbel–Hougaard (GH), Clayton and Frank are used to find the joint probability of rainfall and water level and the best copula for each location is also identified. Subsequently, the joint and conditional return periods of rainfall and water level are also obtained in an exercise of risk modeling. By using the digital elevation model (DEM) in a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform, the flood prone areas are calculated and represented them graphically, for specific cases of joint return period-water level combinations. This helps as an aid for administrators or policy makers to effectively perform the disaster management at Alappuzha.

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来源期刊
Journal of Hydro-environment Research
Journal of Hydro-environment Research ENGINEERING, CIVIL-ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
34
审稿时长
98 days
期刊介绍: The journal aims to provide an international platform for the dissemination of research and engineering applications related to water and hydraulic problems in the Asia-Pacific region. The journal provides a wide distribution at affordable subscription rate, as well as a rapid reviewing and publication time. The journal particularly encourages papers from young researchers. Papers that require extensive language editing, qualify for editorial assistance with American Journal Experts, a Language Editing Company that Elsevier recommends. Authors submitting to this journal are entitled to a 10% discount.
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