人口老龄化与储蓄概率：巴西案例的生命周期分析

Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Nova Economia Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI:10.1590/0103-6351/4915

Pedro Tonon Zuanazzi, Adelar Fochezatto

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引用次数: 2

摘要

摘要本研究分析了巴西私人储蓄的生命周期，反映了储蓄者的比例如何随着人口老龄化而变化。为此，我们采用多项logit模型，根据2002-2003年和2008-2009年家庭预算调查的数据，根据年龄，比较个人储蓄和储蓄的概率。研究结果证实，中年人储蓄的发生率更高，老年人储蓄的比例更高。然而，考虑到巴西人口的年龄结构，预计人口结构的变化仍将导致未来几年净储蓄人数的增加。

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Population aging and the probability of saving: a life cycle analysis of the Brazilian case

Abstract This study analyzes the life cycle of private individuals' savings in Brazil, reflecting on how the proportion of savers changes as the population ages. To this end, we employ a multinomial logit model to compare the probability of savings and dissavings for individuals, according to their ages, based on data from the Household Budget Surveys (HBS) of 2002-2003 and 2008-2009. The results confirm a greater incidence of savers among middle-aged adults and a greater percentage of dissavers among the elderly. However, given the age structure of the Brazilian population, demographic change is still expected to result in an increase in the number of net savers in the coming years.

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来源期刊

Nova Economia Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)

CiteScore

0.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

53 weeks

期刊介绍： Nova Economia is the journal of the Economics Department at Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil). It publishes articles and book reviews in all areas of economics and related disciplines. Nova Economia adopts a pluralistic orientation and welcomes papers in all research traditions and theoretical schools. Submisssions are peer-reviewed and scholarly standards are the sole criteria for editorial decisions. Nova Economia is published three times a year and offers free on-line access to the full articles published from 2000 on.