Towards quantifying uncertainties in geological models for mineral resource estimation through outside-in deposit-scale structural geological analysis

Abstract Mineral Resource downgrades can be prevented by integrating better structural geological interpretations into project evaluations. Geological modelling for Mineral Resource estimation is presented as a systematic process of structural geological analysis at the deposit-scale using drill-sampled grade data. The initial step in this process is to use Maximum Intensity Projection (MIP) rendering to interpret axial symmetry and its orientation from the grade interval mid-points at the deposit-scale, thus reducing the modelling process’s degrees of freedom to only three—estimating the prolateness of the grade or lithological distribution. This approach contrasts with the brute-force methods for assessing modelling uncertainty because the axial direction is fixed to the down-plunge orientation, thus eliminating from the outset, structurally implausible geometric configurations and unrealistic geological scenarios common in brute-force methods. Adopting this new approach of creating geological models means moving away from conventional mining industry methods that prioritise operational considerations in constructing resource estimates but fail to explain the geometric complexities of mineral deposits. We use experiments and a practical case study of a historical gold mine in Western Australia to highlight the significance of analysing the structural control of a gold deposit at the deposit-scale using raw grade data. Our research is based on anecdotal evidence suggesting that erroneous geological modelling leads to unforeseen Mineral Resource downgrades. However, we cannot confirm this hypothesis because there have been few, if any, independent public inquiries into Mineral Resource downgrades. To establish the underlying reasons for significant resource downgrades with certainty, impartial investigations (modelled on accident investigations in the aviation industry) are imperative. KEY POINTS There is a general lack of incorporating structural geological knowledge in creating resource models, which can lead to poor outcomes such as Mineral Resource downgrades. Structural geological analysis of drill-sampled raw grade data allows the structural controls on a deposit to be better understood. We offer a simple workflow for understanding and modelling these patterns.